Bernstein said in a note dated Friday that AstraZeneca’s non-oncology business is forecast to deliver roughly 65% of the company’s expected 6% compound annual sales growth for the 2026-2031 period, but remains underappreciated by investors.
The broker reiterated an outperform recommendation for the stock and kept its price target at A3186, compared with AstraZeneca’s closing share price of A3135.54, implying potential upside of about 37%.
Bernstein highlighted that, despite encouraging non-oncology phase 3 data announced since the third quarter of 2025, its field checks suggest that this segment has not been fully incorporated into investor discussion. The note sets Bernstein apart from consensus with a notably more optimistic top-line projection for 2030.
The broker’s 2030 total revenue forecast is $89.06 billion, which it notes is 11% above AstraZeneca’s own $80 billion risk-adjusted guidance and 8% higher than the Bloomberg consensus of $82 billion. Bernstein expects that the entire sales upside relative to consensus between 2027 and 2035 will be derived from non-oncology products.
Bernstein pinpointed several individual product differences versus market consensus. The largest gap resides in Wainua, AstraZeneca’s treatment for transthyretin amyloidosis, where Bernstein’s risk-adjusted 2035 sales estimate of $4.80 billion is 170% higher than the Bloomberg consensus of $1.80 billion. AstraZeneca has previously guided to non-risk-adjusted peak sales exceeding $5 billion for Wainua.
Clinical milestones noted in the report include an expectation for phase 3 CARDIO-TTransform data in the second half of 2026. Bernstein referenced comments from AstraZeneca’s head of non-oncology R&D, Dr. Sharon Barr, who said U.S. diagnosis rates for ATTR cardiomyopathy remain at about 30%.
Another late-stage asset, AZD0780, an oral PCSK9 inhibitor for high cholesterol with phase 3 data anticipated in 2027, also presents disagreement between broker and consensus forecasts. AstraZeneca has guided to peak sales above $5 billion for AZD0780, while Bloomberg consensus stands at $2.40 billion. Bernstein’s own estimate is $3.10 billion by 2035. Dr. Barr noted that AZD0780 will not require fasting and is more suitable for combination therapy compared with a competing candidate from Merck & Co that carries fasting requirements.
Tozorakimab, AstraZeneca’s chronic obstructive pulmonary disease drug, produced positive headline phase 3 results on March 27, 2026. AstraZeneca has guided peak sales for the asset in a $3 billion to $5 billion range, while Bloomberg consensus sits at $2 billion.
On valuation outcomes, Bernstein set out a bull and bear scenario for 2035 adjusted earnings before interest and tax (EBIT). In the bull case, the broker derives 179% upside to 2035 adjusted EBIT, while the bear case implies 101% downside.
Bernstein attributes 55% of upside in its scenario to the company’s already approved portfolio, led by Ultomiris. For Ultomiris, Bernstein’s 2035 estimate of $9.60 billion exceeds the consensus forecast of $6.50 billion.
The broker’s price target represents an average of two approaches: a discounted cash flow valuation of A3148 using an 8% weighted average cost of capital, and an enterprise value to EBITA valuation of A3224 that applies a 60% premium to European pharmaceutical peers.
Summary
Bernstein argues that AstraZeneca’s non-oncology franchise is a major, under-recognized contributor to the company’s projected midterm growth. The broker maintains an outperform rating and a price target implying roughly 37% upside, supported by forecasts that exceed both AstraZeneca’s own guidance and Bloomberg consensus, particularly for Wainua, AZD0780, Tozorakimab and Ultomiris.
- Key points:
- Non-oncology is expected to supply roughly 65% of AstraZeneca’s projected 6% CAGR from 2026-2031.
- Bernstein’s 2030 revenue forecast of $89.06 billion sits above AstraZeneca’s $80 billion risk-adjusted guidance and Bloomberg consensus of $82 billion.
- Significant consensus gaps in peak sales forecasts exist for Wainua, AZD0780, Tozorakimab and Ultomiris, per Bernstein.
- Risks and uncertainties:
- Clinical and regulatory timing: Key phase 3 readouts, such as CARDIO-TTransform, are expected in the second half of 2026; outcomes and timing could affect forecasts.
- Diagnosis and uptake rates: Dr. Sharon Barr noted U.S. diagnosis for ATTR cardiomyopathy is around 30%, which could constrain near-term market penetration for Wainua.
- Market consensus variance: Large differences between Bernstein’s estimates and Bloomberg consensus illustrate forecasting uncertainty for peak sales across multiple assets, impacting valuation sensitivity.