Stock Markets July 14, 2026 01:06 PM

Ghana’s Small-Scale Gold Purchases Signal Potential Repeat of 2025 Peak

State Gold Board says 50-54 tonnes bought in H1 2026; weaker prices temper 2026 earnings outlook

By Ajmal Hussain
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Ghana’s Precious Minerals Marketing Company (the Gold Board) recorded purchases of roughly 50 to 54 metric tons of gold from artisanal and small-scale miners in the first half of 2026. At the present acquisition pace, the sector is on track to match or top last year’s record 104 metric tons, which was the first time small-scale output exceeded large-scale production. Despite volume momentum, falling gold prices have trimmed earnings expectations for 2026 compared with initial projections.

Ghana’s Small-Scale Gold Purchases Signal Potential Repeat of 2025 Peak
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Key Points

  • The Gold Board purchased 50-54 metric tons of gold from artisanal and small-scale miners in H1 2026, putting the sector on pace to match or exceed 2025’s 104 metric ton record.
  • Small-scale mining generated nearly $11 billion in foreign exchange earnings in 2025, outpacing the roughly $9 billion contributed by large-scale miners, indicating a shift in the composition of Ghana’s gold exports.
  • Though volumes are strong, recent declines in gold prices have reduced the Gold Board’s earnings expectations for 2026 relative to its initial forecasts, which had assumed an average price of about $5,000 per ounce and weekly purchases around 2.5 metric tons.

Ghana’s state gold marketing agency reported purchases of between 50 and 54 metric tons of gold from artisanal and small-scale mining operations in the first six months of 2026, according to comments by the agency’s chief executive, Samuel Gyamfi.

Gyamfi told reporters that, if buying continues at the current pace, small-scale miners could match or surpass the 104 metric tons recorded in 2025. That 2025 total marked a notable shift in the country’s production profile - small-scale output exceeded large-scale production for the first time.

The Gold Board said the small-scale sector generated nearly $11 billion in foreign exchange earnings last year, while large-scale miners contributed about $9 billion. Those figures underscore the growing role of artisanal and small-scale activity in Ghana’s FX receipts and export mix.

Gyamfi also cautioned that recent declines in global gold prices have lowered the board’s earnings expectations for 2026. He noted that the Gold Board’s earlier forecasts had been built on an assumed average gold price of roughly $5,000 per ounce and on weekly purchase volumes in the vicinity of 2.5 metric tons.

Despite the downward adjustment relative to initial forecasts, Gyamfi said Ghana remains on course to record higher gold export earnings in 2026 than in 2025, because average prices to date remain above last year’s levels, even if they fall short of the Gold Board’s original projections.

Gold continues to be Ghana’s largest export and primary foreign exchange earner. The country, identified as Africa’s largest gold producer, has implemented sector reforms aimed at cutting smuggling losses and boosting foreign exchange receipts from the sector.


Bottom line: Purchases through the Gold Board in H1 2026 point to strong small-scale production that could replicate or exceed 2025’s record output. However, weaker-than-expected gold prices have narrowed the upside for export earnings compared with the board’s initial projections.

Risks

  • Declines in the global gold price have already reduced earnings expectations for 2026, creating revenue risk for export receipts and forex inflows - affecting the mining and external accounts sectors.
  • The Gold Board’s projections rely on assumptions (about average price near $5,000/oz and weekly purchase rates of about 2.5 metric tons); deviations from those assumptions could alter expected export earnings - impacting government revenue forecasts and the mining sector.
  • The ultimate outcome for annual small-scale output depends on continued purchase momentum in the second half of 2026 - if purchases slow, the sector may fail to reach or exceed last year’s record, which would influence trade receipts.

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