Bernstein has revised down its adjusted earnings-per-share projections for Novo Nordisk A/S for the 2026-2031 period, pushing its forecasts up to 15% below the Bloomberg consensus, a shortfall the firm attributes primarily to steeper-than-expected U.S. market share losses to Eli Lilly in injectable GLP-1 drugs for obesity and diabetes.
In Bernstein's updated forecasts, 2026 adjusted EPS is 20.19 Danish kroner, 7% below the consensus average of 21.74 kroner. By 2031, its EPS estimate is 24.20 kroner, which sits 15% under the consensus average of 28.31 kroner.
The brokerage retained its "underperform" recommendation on Novo Nordisk but raised its target price to 203 kroner from 200 kroner. That new target implies about 33% downside from the August 7 closing share price of 305.10 kroner.
Bernstein described its bull/bear scenario as "still negatively skewed," estimating only 4% upside versus 40% downside to its 2035 estimated EBIT projection. The firm added that "the catalyst cupboard looks bare."
Key drivers behind the cuts include a projected loss of majority share in U.S. oral obesity to Eli Lilly's Foundayo for the Wegovy Pill by 2028 and expectations for greater U.S. GLP-1 pricing deflation, which the brokerage says will pressure margins and contribute to earnings misses.
Bernstein also removed upside expectations from Cagri-sema after the REDEFINE-4 trial readout in February 2026 failed to demonstrate non-inferiority to Lilly's Zepbound, eliminating what it had considered a potential positive driver.
On the product-development front, the broker added coramitug to its modeling. Coramitug is an antibody licensed from Prothena that is in phase 3 trials for ATTR-cardiomyopathy, a heart condition caused by misfolded protein deposits. Introducing projections for coramitug lifted Bernstein's 2026-2031 group sales forecasts by 2-5% and increased its operating profit outlook over that period by roughly 2-5%, which translated to a 2-4% rise in EPS forecasts for 2026-31.
Despite the upgrade to sales and profit assumptions driven by coramitug, Bernstein's forecast for the drug's peak sales is $928 million, markedly below the consensus peak-sales estimate of $6.3 billion by 2034.
The updated EPS profile produces a 2026-31 compound annual growth rate of 3.7%, up from Bernstein's prior 3.4% projection, although the firm notes this still sits about 420 basis points below the implied growth of European peers.
Bernstein's 203-kroner price target is an average of two valuation approaches: a discounted cash flow valuation of 206 kroner and an EV/EBITA multiples-based valuation of 200 kroner. Both valuations apply a 30% discount to European peers. The broker said that its implied price-to-earnings multiple of roughly 10 times 2026 earnings is not extreme, and that it nevertheless implies a premium to Sanofi under the firm's global large-cap pharma EV/sales regression analysis.
Bernstein noted that removing the 30% EV/EBITA discount would raise the price target to 252 kroner. The firm also said that reverse-engineering its DCF suggests the share price currently discounts a 5% perpetuity growth rate, which it called "extreme" given semaglutide patent expiries between 2026 and 2032.
Finally, Bernstein outlined upside risks that could counter its cautious view: approved growth drivers and pipeline assets meeting consensus expectations, more favorable patent-expiry outcomes supported by Novo's manufacturing scale, and management pursuing value-accretive mergers and acquisitions.
Context for market participants
The broker's revisions and valuation stance underline concerns about Novo Nordisk's near- to mid-term cash flow durability should competitive pressures and pricing deflation in the U.S. intensify. The introduction of coramitug into the model provides some offset to the downgrades, but not to the extent of closing the gap to consensus expectations.