June 23 - A national five-day poll that ended on Monday shows limited public backing for the recent U.S. military engagement with Iran and little confidence that the tentative agreement reached on June 17 will yield durable peace.
The survey found that roughly one quarter of Americans believe the costs of the war with Iran were justified. Some 50% said the conflict was not worth its costs, while the remainder were undecided.
Alongside public skepticism over the war, the poll recorded a drop in presidential approval. The president’s overall approval rating fell to 34%, a return to the lowest level recorded so far in his second term that was previously seen in April.
Perceptions of U.S. standing with Iran
When asked whether the United States is in a stronger position with Iran now than before the outbreak of hostilities, just 23% of respondents agreed that U.S. leverage had improved. By contrast, 35% said the country was in a weaker position than before the war, with the remainder saying they were unsure or that the position was essentially unchanged.
On June 17, the president and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a preliminary agreement intended to reopen oil and gas shipping lanes that the conflict had frozen and to ease U.S.-led economic pressure on Iran. That accord has coincided with a sharp fall in global crude oil prices, though for most Americans retail gasoline prices remain notably higher than they were before the February 28 strikes by U.S. and Israeli forces that precipitated the conflict.
The initial exchange of strikes that followed the February 28 action included Iranian responses that temporarily halted about one-fifth of global oil traffic and inflicted damage on energy facilities belonging to regional U.S. partners.
Outlook on the deal and political implications
The survey shows broad skepticism that the June 17 deal will secure long-term peace. Some 63% of respondents judged it unlikely that the accord would lead to lasting peace between the United States and Iran. Among party lines, roughly half of Republicans and about eight in 10 Democrats said they viewed lasting peace as unlikely. Only 18% of the national sample regarded lasting peace as likely, a figure composed of 34% of Republicans and 10% of Democrats.
On domestic issues, the president’s approval specifically on handling the cost of living measured 22%, a mark described by the poll as near the lowest of his presidency and lower than the rating recorded for his Democratic predecessor at the end of that predecessor’s term in office.
The president began the current term with a 47% approval rating. The poll summary links the subsequent decline in popularity to persistently high inflation and controversy surrounding aggressive immigration enforcement actions that have included violent confrontations with pro-immigration protesters. The continuing erosion of approval could create headwinds for members of the president’s party as they defend their congressional majorities in the November 3 midterm elections.
On immigration specifically, the latest survey recorded a 37% approval for the president’s handling of the issue, the lowest level of his term and down from 40% in the prior poll.
Methodology
The poll surveyed 1,262 adults across the United States. The reported margin of error for the results is plus or minus 3 percentage points.