Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
6,527 total articles
Thailand's headline consumer price index declined 0.66% year-on-year in January, marking the 10th straight month of negative annual inflation. The drop outpaced a Reuters poll forecast of a 0.40% decline and remained well under the central bank's 1-3% target. Officials expect headline inflation to stay negative through early spring, while core infl…
The U.S. dollar was steady in early Asian trading as investors awaited interest rate announcements from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, both widely expected to keep policy rates unchanged. Market attention is on the ECB’s subsequent press conference for guidance on the near-term path of rates, while U.S. corporate earnings and he…
The European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged and signal no imminent change to policy, reflecting stable inflation near the 2% target, growth close to potential and a neutral interest rate stance. While officials are likely to describe policy as being in a 'good place', recent currency moves, commodity price swings and geop…
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Araghchi confirmed that nuclear talks between Iran and the United States will take place in Muscat on Friday at around 10 a.m., with Oman facilitating arrangements. The meeting was shifted from Istanbul after Iran requested a venue change and a stricter, bilateral focus on nuclear issues. U.S. officials initially resi…
President Donald Trump told NBC News he sees "not much" doubt that the Federal Reserve will reduce benchmark U.S. interest rates. He also said his Fed nominee, Kevin Warsh, understands and aligns with his preference for monetary easing, and that support for rate cuts was a condition for the appointment.
Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott said he does not believe Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell broke the law in testimony last summer and would tell investigators so. His comments constitute the first explicit rebuttal from the committee chair to a Department of Justice inquiry that has complicated President Trump’s plan to replace Powell wi…
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told House lawmakers he was wrong to tell partners in January 2024 that "tariffs are inflationary." Speaking at a House Financial Services Committee hearing, Bessent said the U.S. economy is growing and inflation is coming down, and noted recent Producer Price Index data that could signal a near-term pick-up in…
The United States is coordinating with Mexico, the European Union and Japan to pursue minimum pricing for critical minerals, according to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. An action plan with Mexico will be put in place over 60 days as part of a USMCA review due by July 1, while talks with the EU and Japan could produce a memorandum and a b…
Treasury Secretary Bessent told the House Financial Services Panel that Federal Reserve independence is essential to effective monetary policy, urging the central bank to stay within its core mandate. He acknowledged a loss of public trust during the inflation episode, cautioned against chasing a 'zero-risk financial system,' and signaled support f…
Home sales in the Greater Toronto Area weakened noticeably in January, with seasonally adjusted transactions down 9.9% from December to 4,795 units and the TRREB home price index sliding 1.7% month-over-month to C$941,200. The region recorded its lowest sales level since May and the price index posted its eighth consecutive monthly decline, while y…
Deutsche Telekom AG and Nvidia Corp. inaugurated a €1 billion ($1.2 billion) data center in Munich on Wednesday. Finance Minister and Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil attended the opening and said the facility will reinforce Germany's digital independence and serve as a core pillar for the German and European AI ecosystem. SAP SE will provide platfor…
Poland's Monetary Policy Council kept the benchmark interest rate at 4% for a second straight month, citing the need to assess the effects of 175 basis points of easing implemented during 2025. The move follows data showing the economy expanded by 3.6% in 2025 and inflation running at 2.4% in December, below the 2.5% target.
The U.S. Treasury announced a $125 billion quarterly refunding for February-April 2026 that aims to raise $34.8 billion in new cash from private investors. It will hold coupon and floating rate note auction sizes steady for the near term, publish specific next-week auction sizes, and expects to reduce short-dated bill auctions around the April 15 t…
Confidential calculations by economists tied to a government think tank indicate Russia's budget shortfall could widen to 3.5-4.4% of GDP in 2026, far above the government's 1.6% target. The projected deterioration reflects an assumed 18% fall in energy revenues, lower total budget receipts and a potential rise in spending, while fiscal reserves ma…
Fitch Ratings projects Poland's fiscal deficit will stay near 7% of GDP in 2026, declining only gradually to just under 6% by 2028. The agency expects general government debt to reach 70% of GDP in 2027 and cautions that an absence of further consolidation, weaker growth, or sharply higher debt servicing costs could trigger a sovereign rating downg…
The European Central Bank is widely expected to keep rates on hold through the coming meetings, but Deutsche Bank economists say further easing remains a clear risk if the euro strengthens, growth weakens, or inflation slows. While the bank's baseline assumes domestic resilience will prevail and policy will remain unchanged, recent currency moves, …
Inflation across the 21 euro area countries slowed to 1.7% in January, driven by lower energy prices. A core inflation gauge that excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco also eased to 2.2% from 2.3%, with services prices continuing to moderate. Most economists expect the soft patch to persist for at least a year, and the readings are unlikely to…
Bank of America analysts view Colombia as not having reached 'receiver territory' even after a hawkish move by the central bank, BanRep. The firm argues a front-loaded hiking cycle signals a stronger resolve to anchor long-term inflation expectations and could allow a lower terminal policy rate than a slower pace would permit. BofA favors relative-…
U.S. futures were modestly higher as markets absorbed a steep decline among software firms tied to artificial intelligence and awaited quarterly results from Alphabet. The technology sector remains the focal point after fresh competition from an AI legal tool pressured publishers and data companies, while other macro developments - including a Fede…
Kenya's private sector registered continued expansion in January, but activity cooled from December as the Stanbic Bank Kenya Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 51.9 from 53.7. The slowdown was driven by outright falls in demand in construction and wholesale and retail, while manufacturing firms more often recorded sales growth. Official fore…
Sovereign yield premiums in the euro area have fallen to levels not seen since the 2008 Lehman collapse, driven by expectations of ECB rate cuts and growing prospects for joint debt. However, investors and analysts warn that further convergence toward a single, tightly unified spread may be constrained unless the EU advances banking union, capital …
Activity in India's services sector rebounded in January, with HSBC's services PMI rising to 58.5 from 58.0 in December, driven by a faster expansion in new business and stronger export orders. Employment growth was only marginal, while input costs increased, prompting firms to raise output charges.
The U.S. dollar traded with little change while the Japanese yen weakened near a two-week low as investors weighed Kevin Warsh's Fed nomination and an upcoming national election in Japan. The euro and sterling were steady ahead of European central bank policy meetings, and markets continued to factor in recent U.S. political developments and centra…
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) expects the UK unemployment rate to average 5.4% this year, its highest level since 2015. Rising labour costs - driven by an elevated minimum wage and a jump in employers' social security contributions - are cited as a key factor, alongside a return of previously inactive people to the …
Josh Harris, a veteran private equity executive who co-founded Apollo and now runs 26North Partners, warned at a finance conference in West Palm Beach that efforts to direct retail retirement capital into private markets carry significant risks. He argued that retail investors may not appreciate liquidity constraints in some private structures and …
