Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
7,197 total articles
Bank of America has rescinded its forecast for a March rate cut by the Bank of England, now anticipating that policymakers will keep the Bank Rate at 3.75% amid a near-term energy price shock. The bank's strategists, led by Mark Capleton, expect a 7-2 vote to hold at the upcoming meeting but warn that outcomes remain sensitive to the size and persi…
Australia's Treasurer will prioritise fiscal savings, productivity measures and tax reform in the May budget to prepare for an inflation shock and a potential drag on growth linked to a prolonged Middle East conflict, according to excerpts of his pre-budget remarks. A Treasury scenario warns the conflict could add 1.25 percentage points to inflatio…
Bank of America continues to forecast Mexico's policy rate falling to 6% by the end of 2026 and expects a 25 basis point reduction as early as March. The bank maintains this out-of-consensus view despite identifying upside inflation pressures from energy, fertilizer, shipping and commodity markets. BofA says Banxico is likely to justify a March cut…
Switzerland's government has trimmed its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1% from 1.1% amid uncertainty tied to the Middle East conflict and a rise in energy costs. The forecast for 2027 remains 1.7%. An expert group at the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs raised its 2026 inflation projection to 0.4% and flagged slightly weaker private consumption…
The Bank of Canada is widely expected to keep its policy rate at 2.25% when it announces its decision on Wednesday, with inflation hovering near the midpoint of the bank's 1% to 3% target range. Economists say the central bank is likely to flag the inflationary risks posed by a recent spike in oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict, while ci…
The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% when it concludes a two-day meeting on Wednesday. A recent jump in oil prices and the onset of the Iran conflict have elevated inflation concerns, prompting some economists to warn that the Fed could signal a 'symmetric policy bias' that leaves bo…
U.S. stock index futures advanced after oil prices slipped, while market participants awaited the Federal Reserve's policy update and commentary on how the Middle East conflict, tariffs and a cooling labor market may shape future monetary decisions. Strength in AI-related chip demand supported technology names, and data on producer prices for Febru…
U.S. equity futures moved higher as markets awaited a Federal Reserve interest rate decision that arrives while fighting in Iran continues to unsettle energy markets. Brent crude eased but remained above $100 a barrel amid concerns that disrupted supplies will sustain inflationary pressures and could delay prospective Fed rate cuts. Memory-chip mak…
European stocks rose for a third consecutive session as a pullback in crude oil prices eased pressure on markets and boosted sentiment ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision. The STOXX 600 advanced, with financials leading gains while energy names slipped amid lower oil. Investors also awaited euro zone inflation data due later in the day.
Two senior executives at Thailand’s $88 billion Social Security Office fund say structural reforms are urgently needed after a recent market rout pushed the fund’s value-at-risk metric past its internal limit. They called for greater diversification, reduced reliance on low-yield domestic assets and a move toward professional, independent governanc…
Citi economists anticipate the Riksbank will maintain its policy rate at 1.75% and signal an extended pause, treating the recent rise in inflation linked to energy prices as largely external and potentially temporary. With core inflation surprising to the downside, a stronger krona and fiscal measures already in play, policymakers are expected to k…
Citi economists say a fresh energy price surge tied to events in the Middle East complicates the European Central Bank's task, increasing the likelihood that policymakers will feel pressure to act if inflation trends higher. Despite hawkish rhetoric and markets pricing in tighter policy, Citi expects rates to remain around 2% through 2026 and predi…
Australia's Treasury released fresh modelling showing the ongoing Middle East conflict could push consumer prices higher and shave growth from the economy. Officials evaluated two paths for oil and commodity prices - a shorter disruption and a more protracted shock - and quantified the differing impacts on inflation and GDP.
A retreat in oil prices sparked a broad risk-on move across Asian and European markets, but attention now turns to the Federal Reserve's policy decision and updated dot plot. The meeting, along with Bank of Canada commentary and U.S. data, will shape whether markets keep pricing in rate cuts or reprice a hawkish pivot.
Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at their upcoming meeting but will use the policy statement and updated projections to reflect how the new, open-ended conflict with Iran has altered the outlook for growth, inflation and monetary policy. Rising oil and fuel costs, supply concerns and a weaker labor pri…
The Bank of Japan is broadly expected to hold its policy rate at the March 19 meeting, but officials are likely to deliver a firmer, more hawkish outlook amid lingering inflationary pressures and recent yen depreciation. Policymakers face a trade-off between mounting signs of economic strength and near-term uncertainty over wage growth, while polit…
A powerful AI model named Hunter Alpha appeared anonymously on OpenRouter on March 11 and has prompted debate among developers about whether it is an early test for DeepSeek’s anticipated V4. The model claims a Chinese-language focus, a training cutoff of May 2025, a scale of about one trillion parameters and a context window of up to one million t…
Asian stock markets advanced after oil prices paused their recent rise, even as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed amid renewed Middle East hostilities. Investors shifted attention to a U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision and commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, while corporate earnings from chipmakers could provide additional direct…
Japan's exports increased for a sixth straight month in February, rising 4.2% year-on-year and beating the median forecast of 1.6%. Continued demand from Asia helped drive the gain, though higher oil prices related to the Middle East conflict pose a risk to the energy-import-dependent economy. Imports climbed 10.2%, leaving Japan with a surprise tr…
As annual wage negotiations wrap up this week, numerous large Japanese corporations are preparing to grant substantial pay increases for a fourth straight year. While unions and management have largely reached deals despite elevated U.S. tariffs, concerns over higher oil prices stemming from the Middle East conflict could weaken corporate profits a…
A monthly poll that tracks the Bank of Japan's tankan survey found manufacturers' sentiment climbed to its strongest level since December 2021 in March, driven by gains in chemicals, petroleum and a recovering semiconductor market. Despite the improvement, worries about the Middle East conflict, rising costs and soft demand from China temper the ne…
U.S. Postmaster General David Steiner told a House Oversight subcommittee the U.S. Postal Service could exhaust its cash as soon as October or November if it continues to meet required retirement and other government payments. Steiner urged Congress to approve higher stamp prices, expanded borrowing authority and other reforms, and outlined cost-cu…
Global equity markets rose and bond yields slipped on March 17 as Brent crude reclaimed the $100-per-barrel mark. Investors looked past the jump in oil prices to focus on an upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision and a slate of macroeconomic and central bank events due this week. Energy-related price pressures and flattening yield curves a…
German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul told a Berlin audience that a military solution to the Iran conflict is unrealistic and that engineered regime change would risk chaos harmful to Germany, the region and Iranians. Speaking at an event hosted by the ZEIT media group alongside his French counterpart, Wadephul also said now is not the time to li…
The Chilean government has directed a comprehensive spending reduction plan totaling almost $4 billion, combining a uniform 3% cut across budget items with targeted ministry savings and prior cuts announced by the previous administration. A March 13 budget office memo says the measures are intended to restore fiscal sustainability, preserve social …
