Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
7,197 total articles
Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said she favors three interest-rate reductions in 2026 to help support the U.S. labor market, while expecting robust economic growth this year and monitoring the possible effects of the war in Iran. Bowman described her outlook as more dovish than some fellow policymakers, praised recent pr…
U.S. equity mutual funds and ETFs experienced substantial net redemptions in the week to March 18, as concerns about rising oil, hotter-than-expected inflation and the Federal Reserve’s guarded posture reduced expectations for rate cuts this year. Outflows were concentrated in large-cap stocks, while bond funds, money market funds and industrial-se…
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller told CNBC he had intended to dissent at this week's policy meeting in favor of a rate cut after February's surprising loss of 92,000 jobs. He said developments in the Iran war - including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz - and a resulting oil shock, which he expects could keep energy prices elevated fo…
Retail sales in Canada climbed 1.1% in January to C$70.7 billion, driven mainly by a rebound in the automotive sector and broad-based gains across provinces and subsectors. Core retail measures, excluding fuel and vehicles, rose 0.9% while general merchandise retailers recorded their fourth straight monthly increase.
Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave says markets have 'nearly priced out Fed cuts for the year' and investors are asking what scenario would prompt the Federal Reserve to tighten further. BofA identifies three specific prerequisites for a rate increase - a stable labor market, higher core inflation, and continuity in Fed leadership - and ties th…
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller told CNBC that he had been willing to dissent in favor of a rate cut after the February jobs report, but that worsening inflation risks - tied to a continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and potential oil-driven pass-through to core inflation - caused him to change his view. He said caution is appropri…
The Trump Administration on Friday put forward a national legislative framework intended to guide federal AI policy and called on Congress to pass comprehensive legislation addressing six priority areas: protections for minors, data center energy rules, intellectual property balance, safeguards against censorship, removal of regulatory hurdles and …
BNP Paribas expanded its exposure to originated synthetic significant risk transfers (SRTs) in the non-trading book to €66.7 billion from €46.5 billion at the end of 2024, a 43% increase. The move reflects a broader expansion of SRT activity across banks, which has drawn attention from European regulators asking lenders to favor transactions that r…
Market-derived measures of Fed policy odds have shifted quickly: overnight index swaps now put a 10% probability on a Fed rate increase by April and 20% by October. The change follows a sharp climb in two-year Treasury yields and rising energy prices tied to conflict in the Middle East, while recent PPI data came in above consensus. Fed officials h…
The U.S. State Department has launched a Bureau of Disaster and Humanitarian Response to coordinate American responses to natural disasters and humanitarian crises worldwide. The move completes a sweeping reorganization that absorbed the U.S. Agency for International Development into State after the agency was dismantled earlier this year. The new …
U.S. officials have indicated that sanctions on Iranian crude currently stuck aboard tankers may be eased soon, allowing shipments to reach Asian ports within three to four days, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said. Wright reiterated comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and said that oil from an unsanctioned Iran would likely be absorbed b…
A prolonged Iran conflict threatens to trigger a far-reaching disruption to global energy flows that would ripple through inflation, industrial activity and public finances. Some advanced economies - particularly energy-importing, manufacturing-heavy nations - and several emerging markets with acute exposure to Middle East shipping lanes, tourism r…
U.S. officials are considering plans to occupy or blockade Kharg Island, a major hub for Iran's crude exports, as a means to compel Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Multiple sources say the operation would follow further U.S. strikes to reduce Iranian military capacity and would require additional troop deployments beyond forces already en ro…
U.S. equity futures fell in volatile trading as the Iran war neared its fourth week, lifting crude prices and forcing investors to push back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Brent climbed above $110 a barrel, volatility ticked higher and traders revised the likely timing of a Fed easing to 2027. Corporate earnings from FedEx provided a r…
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s public statement that he will not vacate the central bank until a criminal inquiry led by U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro is "well and truly over with transparency and finality," and his continued deliberation about remaining in a governor’s seat through 2028, has become a central factor in how an incoming Kevin Wa…
Futures for U.S. equity benchmarks were mixed-to-higher early Friday as U.S. and Israeli officials worked to tamp down fears of a prolonged campaign against Iran. Oil prices eased from intraday spikes after diplomatic signals and possible relief measures were signaled by Washington, while gold rebounded from recent losses. Logistics giant FedEx rai…
European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said a rate increase could be enacted as early as April 30 if energy-related price pressures push the medium-term inflation outlook higher and lift inflation expectations. His comments followed fresh ECB staff projections showing headline consumer-price inflation at 2.6% this year and cam…
Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said the European Central Bank will avoid passivity or overreaction to recent oil and gas price swings and stands ready to intervene to keep inflation anchored at 2%. He told Boursorama the ECB will decide on potential rate moves on a meeting-by-meeting basis, with a rate increase currently more p…
Bank of Spain Governor Jose Luis Escriva told EFE that any Spanish measures to offset the economic fallout from the Iran conflict should be narrowly targeted at those most affected and limited in duration. Rising oil and gas prices since U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran have heightened the risk of higher consumer prices and weaker activity across the e…
Delegates meeting at next week’s World Trade Organization ministerial in Yaounde face a high-stakes test of whether the body can agree a credible reform path. Diplomatic sources and internal documents indicate broad support for reform but deep disagreement on the route forward. If members fail to settle on a roadmap, trade-reliant economies may pur…
A rapid re-pricing of global interest rate expectations tied to higher energy costs has halted the dollar's advance. Investors now see a greater likelihood of rate hikes from other major central banks, pressuring global sovereign bonds and lifting crude prices above $100 a barrel as Middle East supply risks persist.
Economists warn that the war in Iran could turn China's long-running deflation into an inflation driven by higher input costs rather than demand recovery. A sharp rise in oil and commodity prices risks lifting producer price inflation from negative territory, compressing already thin corporate margins, weighing on wages and jobs, and intensifying d…
Goldman Sachs has revised its timeline for Bank of England rate reductions, pushing expected cuts out to 2027. The move follows the BoE's decision to keep the Bank Rate at 3.75% and its warning that inflation could rise to about 3.5% over the next two quarters amid heightened energy-price risks tied to the conflict in the Middle East and strained s…
The dollar retreated from multi-month peaks this week after a sharp rise in energy prices altered expectations for interest rate paths in several major economies. As central banks in Europe, the U.K., Japan and Australia signalled greater readiness to tighten policy in response to constrained Middle East energy supplies, the euro, yen, sterling, Sw…
Global markets entered Friday with bonds under pressure and oil easing from recent highs after policymakers across major central banks warned that inflation risks tied to the Middle East conflict could require a firmer policy stance. Traders pared expectations for Federal Reserve easing this year and placed greater odds on rate moves from other cen…
