U.S. equity futures traded with muted momentum on Friday as market participants positioned themselves for what is set to be the largest public offering in history and parsed claims that a deal to end the Iran war may be near. The early-morning tape showed the Dow futures roughly flat, the S&P 500 futures down about 17 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures lower by roughly 160 points, or 0.6%, at 03:13 ET (07:13 GMT).
On Thursday the main Wall Street averages closed higher, but intraday sentiment moved sharply after President Trump shifted between threats of additional strikes on Iran and announcements that a peace agreement was close to completion. Oil, which has been central to inflation concerns in recent sessions, pulled back materially as those diplomatic developments unfolded.
Those market moves largely offset a hotter-than-expected reading for U.S. producer price growth in May. At the same time, analysts at Deutsche Ban noted that initial weekly jobless claims rose to their highest level in four months, a development that could complicate forecasting for the Federal Reserve. The central bank has been widely expected to raise interest rates before year-end, given indications of accelerating inflation and a still-resilient labor market.
1. Futures and tech-sector jitters
Futures activity suggested a cautious tone as traders awaited the SpaceX float and further developments on Iran. Beyond macroeconomic data and geopolitical headlines, corporate news fed into the mood. Oracle shares slid steeply after the cloud software company issued a spending forecast that substantially exceeded analysts' estimates - a projection that could amplify concerns about how the technology sector will finance an extensive build-out of artificial intelligence data centers.
2. SpaceX prepares a blockbuster market debut
SpaceX, the reusable rocket company founded by Elon Musk, is set to begin public trading on Friday under the ticker SPCX in a listing anticipated to break records. The company confirmed an IPO price of $135 per share and announced the sale of over 555 million shares, implying a valuation near $1.77 trillion.
At that pricing, the offering is expected to raise about $75 billion, eclipsing the $25.6 billion raised by Saudi Aramco in 2019 and the $21.8 billion that Alibaba gathered in 2014. A strategist cited by a major newspaper observed that SpaceX's target proceeds would exceed the total raised by every U.S. flotation across the previous two years combined.
Elon Musk, who founded the company in 2002 and is reported to hold roughly a 50% stake, could become the world's first trillionaire if the implied valuation holds. The IPO could also prompt additional large-scale market debuts; confidential filings from AI startups Anthropic and OpenAI were noted as potentially valuing each near $1 trillion.
3. Presidential comments raise prospects for a U.S.-Iran agreement
President Trump on Thursday told reporters that a deal had been reached with Iran and that final documents could be signed soon, possibly in Europe and perhaps over the coming weekend. He said the United States and Iran had struck an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and to end a naval blockade of Iranian ports.
"We just made a great settlement of the war with Iran, and we’re going to be subject to finalization of documents, which should get done over the next few days. We’ll probably have a signing, maybe in Europe," the president said. He later added at a virtual tele-rally that "we ended the war with Iran today," and that the country had agreed "never to have a nuclear weapon."
Iran’s foreign ministry indicated that major sections of a potential accord aimed at ending the war were close to completion, according to statements carried by state media Press TV. At the same time Tehran rejected suggestions that a deal had already been signed, pointing to "contradictory positions" from the U.S. that were producing "turbulence and disruption" in the negotiation process.
4. Oil retreats below $90 on peace hopes
Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell below $90 a barrel as traders reacted to signs that a settlement with Iran could reduce shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. At 03:27 ET the contract was down 2.0% at $88.62 a barrel, off the highs reached in recent months but still well above pre-war levels seen before the conflict escalated in late February. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures likewise fell, retreating 2.2% to $85.82 a barrel.
Despite the more optimistic headlines, some market observers cautioned that oil may not swiftly return to pre-conflict price levels. Analysts at ING highlighted the persistent supply shortfall and its inflationary effects, writing that "[T]he legacy issue of this crisis has been the substantial loss of energy supplies and its inflationary shock sent around the world." They added that unless shipments through the Strait of Hormuz resume rapidly, energy markets could approach a tipping point in July, arguing that traders should be cautious about expecting materially lower oil prices from current levels.
5. Adobe posts earnings beat but stock falls after CFO exits
Adobe reported quarterly results that topped expectations on both revenue and earnings and lifted annual guidance for profit and revenue. The company also said that annualized recurring revenue associated with its artificial intelligence products had tripled compared with a year earlier.
Despite those operational positives, Adobe's stock fell more than 5% in extended trading after the company announced that Chief Financial Officer Dan Durn will depart on June 15 to pursue a new professional opportunity. Steve Day, senior vice president of corporate finance, will serve as interim CFO.
The personnel change marks the second consecutive quarter in which a top-level executive move occurred at the software firm. In March Adobe announced that CEO Shantanu Narayen would step down. Narayen, who became chief executive in late 2007, presided over the company's shift to a subscription-based cloud model that bundled its various creative applications.
San Jose-based Adobe is renowned for products such as Photoshop and Premiere Pro, and has moved into generative artificial intelligence with its Firefly suite of tools for images, video, audio, and vectors.
Market implications and closing observations
Traders faced a mixed backdrop of historic corporate finance activity, geopolitical developments with direct implications for energy markets, and fresh corporate leadership news. The SpaceX flotation, if successful at the disclosed pricing and share volume, would alter capital markets by setting a new benchmark for single-company fundraising and could spur further large-scale listings in technology and AI-focused sectors.
At the same time, the tug-of-war between hotter producer price inflation readings and a modest rise in unemployment claims adds complexity to expectations for the Federal Reserve's path on rates. Geopolitical progress toward a settlement with Iran has the potential to ease oil-related inflation pressures, but commentators cautioned that structural supply losses tied to the conflict may prevent an immediate return to pre-war energy price levels.
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