Foreign exchange markets and global currency movements.
Coverage of currency markets including major pairs, central bank actions, interest-rate differentials, and geopolitical influences. This section highlights trends in FX markets that impact global trade, inflation, and cross-asset correlations.
698 total articles
UBS's Chief Investment Office lowered its June forecast for GBP/USD to 1.34 and expects the pound to face near-term pressure from dollar safe-haven flows, elevated oil prices and pre-election UK political uncertainty. While the firm sees the pound supported by attractive carry and a potential recovery toward 1.40 later in its forecast horizon, it w…
UBS Switzerland AG has lowered its projection for the euro-Swiss franc exchange rate in June to 0.91, attributing the downgrade to persistent US-Iran tensions, higher oil prices and increased investor risk aversion. The bank outlines a risk-off scenario that could drive EUR/CHF below 0.90 and as low as 0.88, while retaining a medium-term forecast o…
Sterling fell on Friday, pulled down by firming oil prices even after the Bank of England delivered a more hawkish-than-expected message that has lifted expectations for future UK interest rates. The pound eased to $1.34, trimming some of Thursday’s strong advance, while EUR/GBP was steady and EUR/USD retreated amid renewed dollar support and ECB r…
UBS strategists warn foreign exchange markets are likely to face increased volatility in the near term as the Iran conflict raises the prospect of prolonged disruption to energy supplies. The bank highlights rising crude prices, the potential for targeted attacks on energy infrastructure, and shifting central bank postures as key drivers of currenc…
Most Asian currencies weakened on Friday and finished the week marginally lower as markets weighed the economic fallout from elevated oil prices linked to the U.S.-Israel war on Iran. Hawkish commentary from several major central banks reinforced fears that oil-driven inflation will keep interest rates elevated, while the dollar, after rising to mu…
The Indian rupee fell to a new record low as a sharp rise in oil prices amid heightened Middle East tensions, together with a firmer U.S. dollar following the Federal Reserve's recent policy stance, pushed the USD/INR pair higher. The move raises concerns about India's import bill and the potential widening of its current account deficit as energy …
Most Asian currencies made modest gains on Thursday as markets digested strong U.S. inflation signals and mixed Federal Reserve messaging that supported the dollar overnight. The Japanese yen remained anchored close to its weakest levels since mid-2024 after the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged, while a spike in oil prices tied to the escalating …
Goldman Sachs identifies a roughly 2% rise in the trade-weighted dollar since the start of the war with Iran, attributing the move to higher energy prices and resultant terms-of-trade shifts. The bank notes markets appear to be prioritizing the inflationary implications of the shock over growth concerns, though recession fears resurfaced late last …
Most Asian currencies traded in narrow bands as investors weighed geopolitical concerns surrounding Iran and prepared for a cluster of central bank meetings. The U.S. dollar held steady after two weeks of gains, the yen showed some recovery ahead of a Bank of Japan meeting, and a handful of Asian exchange rates recorded small moves tied to higher e…
The U.S. dollar trimmed recent gains as a modest revival in risk appetite surfaced ahead of a series of central bank policy announcements. The yen strengthened from anxiety-inducing levels, the euro held near recent gains and global risk indicators were influenced by developments in the Middle East and shifts in policymakers' expected paths.
Bank of America researchers say quantitative indicators and option-flow data show investors are moving decisively into U.S. dollar exposure as the conflict in the Middle East increases the prospect of prolonged hostilities and higher energy prices. Technical signals point to further dollar strength versus several currencies traditionally viewed as …
Bank of America adjusted its Thai baht forecast, anticipating a near-term weakening to 33 per U.S. dollar by mid-2026 followed by a recovery to 31 per dollar by the end of 2026. The revision reflects the combined effects of an oil price shock and an elevated Thai nominal effective exchange rate after post-election equity inflows, which has increase…
Most Asian currencies traded in tight ranges as renewed strength in oil prices, driven by ongoing hostilities related to the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, kept risk sentiment subdued. The Australian dollar outperformed peers slightly as traders positioned for a likely Reserve Bank of Australia rate increase. Attention now turns to a sequence of c…
Bank of America cautions that this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting is unlikely to materially change the dollar’s trajectory given the absence of anticipated policy moves. The bank says rising geopolitically-driven uncertainty and oil price pressure are the primary forces keeping the dollar supported, with currency moves likely to be he…
The Indian rupee sank to a fresh record low as investors reacted to higher crude prices and mounting worries about potential interruptions to oil and gas flows following Iran's effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The currency's decline reflects India's heavy reliance on imported energy and the prospect of higher import bills weighing on the…
Most Asian currencies traded in a narrow range as persistent uncertainty over hostilities involving Iran and cautious positioning ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting supported the U.S. dollar near multi-month highs. The Australian dollar outperformed peers ahead of a Reserve Bank of Australia meeting where a rate increase is widely anticipated. Chin…
A Bank of America FX and rates sentiment survey conducted March 6-11 among 39 global fund managers overseeing $632 billion shows a pronounced rebound in U.S. dollar positioning as geopolitical tensions and rising risk-off sentiment weigh on conviction across markets. Emerging market currencies have lost ground in both sentiment and positioning, whi…
The U.S. dollar maintained gains on Friday and is set for a second weekly increase since the onset of the Iran conflict, buoyed by safe-haven flows and the United States' status as a net energy exporter. The euro hovered near multi-month lows, the yen traded at levels that revive intervention concerns in Japan, and oil market disruptions prompted e…
ING warns that currency markets have become overly hawkish on Bank of England policy, with EUR/GBP closely tied to oil prices. Market pricing has driven two-year sterling swap rates up 50 basis points since the Iran-related conflict began, and ING says further sterling strength would be stretched unless traders start to price in a BoE rate rise. UB…
UBS strategists reaffirm a cautious stance on the British pound, projecting EUR/GBP at 0.89 by end-Q2 and GBP/USD at 1.31, citing the economic and financial risks stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict. Recent front-end rate moves have temporarily supported sterling, but persistent energy disruptions, higher gilt yields and potential govern…
Asian currencies weakened broadly as ongoing hostilities involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran propelled oil prices higher and heightened concerns about energy-related economic disruptions. The dollar strengthened in Asian trading on safe-haven flows and growing bets on more persistent inflation, while upcoming U.S. PCE inflation data is in focus fo…
EUR/GBP has weakened roughly 1.5% since the onset of the Iranian conflict, driven by a hawkish repricing in sterling yields and the relative strength of equity markets. ING says the fall looks extended on short-term valuation measures and that oil trading under $90 could prompt a dovish reassessment of UK rate expectations, supporting a bounce in t…
Since the Iran conflict began, the Singapore dollar has depreciated far less versus the US dollar than the Asia-Pacific average, supported by Singapore's robust fiscal position and the Monetary Authority of Singapore's (MAS) emphasis on exchange-rate management to curb inflation. UBS strategists highlight the MAS's willingness to let the currency a…
Most Asian currencies traded in narrow ranges as markets balanced conflicting signals over the U.S.-Israel war with Iran and awaited U.S. CPI data for February. The Australian dollar rallied to its strongest level since mid-2022 on growing expectations the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates next week. The Japanese yen underperforme…
Goldman Sachs recommends short positions in EUR/CHF as an effective hedge against inflation risks emanating from higher oil prices, citing the Swiss National Bank's hawkish stance and the franc's relative insulation versus other G10 currencies. The bank suggests options strategies to capture downside in EUR/CHF, while viewing USD/CHF as a less reli…
