Chinese imports of US agricultural products excluding soybeans are running at their lowest level for the January-through-September period since 2019, according to a Reuters analysis of customs data. Between January and September this year China purchased $7.2 billion worth of US farm goods ranging from meat to corn, even as Washington and Beijing announced a separate commitment for Beijing to buy $17 billion of US agricultural goods annually from 2026, with this year’s target to be prorated.
In May, the White House said China agreed to the $17 billion annual target beginning in 2026, on top of a pledge in October last year to buy US soybeans. While China appears on track to meet the soybean portion of that earlier commitment, the broader purchases outside soy have been slow. Whether China is in breach of the $17 billion commitment is unclear because the White House has not said whether the compliance clock began after the May announcement or will start once proposed Chinese tariff cuts are finalized - and those tariff reductions have yet to be completed.
The sluggish pace of non-soy purchases compounds doubts that imports will surge this year. The shortfall has frustrated US farmers coping with elevated input costs such as fuel, and it has become a political talking point as Democrats attempt to sway heartland voters ahead of the midterm elections scheduled for Tuesday.
Industry reaction
Tim Lust, chief executive of the National Sorghum Producers, voiced growers’ frustrations: "Our growers are patriots, but there’s a lot of bins of grain full and certainly a desire to see grain trade," he said. "Beans are trading, but other commodities are not."
The US Department of Agriculture directed questions about the prorating schedule to the Office of the US Trade Representative. Requests for comment to the USTR, the White House and China’s Ministry of Commerce were not answered.
Demand fundamentals and competition cloud prospects
Analysts say that even if purchases accelerate, weak Chinese demand and strong global competition make meeting a $17 billion non-soy target difficult without directed buying by state-owned entities.
Consider corn. China’s corn imports peaked in 2021 at $5.6 billion, nearly 20 million metric tons. Yet market participants in China are currently signalling that US corn lacks competitiveness in part because of ample domestic supply. COFCO Futures, a futures broker affiliated with a major Chinese state trader, said last month that US corn was not competitive and forecast imports of roughly 900,000 tons of US corn for the 2026/27 marketing year, which began in September.
Sorghum underscores the competitive pressures. US sorghum shipments to China peaked at 6.5 million metric tons, worth $2.1 billion, in 2021. Brazil has since gained access and in September 2025 secured the right to ship to China. According to Eduardo Vanin, senior agriculture strategist at Marex, Brazil has shipped 1.7 million metric tons to China so far this year, with nearly 1 million additional tons planned for shipment. US government data show the US exported about 3.7 million tons of sorghum to China up to the end of August - notably higher than a year earlier when trade stalled amid bilateral tensions - but US sorghum sales to China have largely dried up over the past four months.
Meat imports are similarly constrained. China currently has domestic oversupply of pork and chicken, while US beef faces higher prices driven by smaller herds. Regulatory barriers persist for beef despite China renewing export licences in May for more than 400 US beef plants; about half of US fed-cattle slaughter capacity remains ineligible to export to China, according to the US Meat Export Federation. Joe Schuele, a federation spokesperson, said some plants were barred after Chinese authorities reported residues of substances not approved in China.
State-directed purchases appear necessary
Given these structural factors, analysts argue China would likely need to rely on state buyers to hit the $17 billion target for non-soy agricultural goods - similar to mechanisms already applied to soybean trade. Whether Beijing will take that step is a political decision, analysts say.
Darin Friedrichs, co-founder of Sitonia Consulting, summarized the constraint: "Much of this seems to depend on how much China will use state-owned enterprises to do purchases. It’s difficult to get to $17 billion in non-soybeans without directed, non-market, purchases."
What this means for markets and policy
The current import pace signals continued uncertainty for US commodity exporters and uplifts the importance of political and regulatory decisions in both capitals. Market access, domestic supply dynamics in China and choices about state-directed procurement will be decisive for whether the $17 billion commitment can be met once its start date is clarified.