A new AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll released this week finds Brazil's incumbent president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro locked in a statistical tie in a simulated second-round presidential contest. The survey recorded the right-wing challenger, Flavio Bolsonaro, at 47.8% and the leftist incumbent, Lula, at 47.5% in a head-to-head scenario.
That result closely tracks a March poll in which Flavio Bolsonaro had 47.6% versus Lula's 46.6%. A separate BTG Pactual/Nexus poll published on Monday also indicated the two leading contenders were statistically tied, underscoring how narrow the race has become ahead of the October general election.
AtlasIntel's polling included two different first-round simulations. In those scenarios, Lula's support ranged from 44.2% to 46.6%, while Flavio Bolsonaro's support fell between 39.3% and 39.7%, with the exact figures varying depending on the presence and standing of other candidates in the lineup.
Brazil's electoral rules require a candidate to secure more than 50% of valid votes to avoid a second-round runoff. Since 2002, the country's presidential contests have advanced to a second-round vote when no candidate crossed that threshold, a pattern the latest polling suggests could repeat in October.
Market participants have been following opinion polls closely since former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently under house arrest, publicly endorsed his son Flavio in December. The endorsement is cited in the polling context as a factor markets monitor when assessing political risk ahead of next year's vote.
The polling exercise surveyed 5,008 respondents between April 22 and April 27. AtlasIntel reported a margin of error of 1 percentage point in either direction for the survey results.
The 80-year-old Lula, who defeated the elder Bolsonaro in 2022, is pursuing a fourth non-consecutive presidential term. His challenger, Flavio Bolsonaro, is 44 years old.
Data note: AtlasIntel conducted the survey of 5,008 people from April 22 to April 27 and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point.