DUBAI, April 28 - The United Arab Emirates said on Tuesday it had withdrawn from OPEC and the OPEC+ coalition, a departure that represents a serious setback for the oil exporting organisations and their effective leader, Saudi Arabia. The exit of a longstanding OPEC member risks generating disunity within the group, which has historically aimed to display cohesion despite recurring internal disputes over geopolitics and production targets.
The UAE’s decision arrives at a time of heightened instability in the Middle East, where a war involving Iran has produced a significant energy shock that has unsettled the global economy. Gulf producers have been contending with threats to, and attacks on, vessels traversing the Strait of Hormuz - the narrow maritime chokepoint between Iran and Oman through which roughly one fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas typically moves - complicating export flows.
Observers note that the UAE’s departure could cause organisational strain for OPEC and OPEC+, reducing the collective leverage the groups have tried to maintain when coordinating production and communicating policy. The loss of the UAE, an influential Gulf producer, may amplify existing disagreements within the blocs over a range of matters including quota setting and geopolitical alignment.
The move was described in political terms as well. It was framed as a diplomatic rebuke after UAE officials publicly criticised fellow Arab states for what they saw as insufficient measures to protect Emirati assets and interests from repeated Iranian attacks during the conflict. Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, voiced that criticism in a public forum.
"The Gulf Cooperation Council countries supported each other logistically, but politically and militarily, I think their position has been the weakest historically," Gargash said. "I expect this weak stance from the Arab League and I am not surprised by it, but I haven’t expected it from the (Gulf) Cooperation Council and I am surprised by it," he said.
U.S. politics intersected with the announcement. The UAE’s exit was characterised as a notable victory for U.S. President Donald Trump, who has accused the oil organisation of "ripping off the rest of the world" by keeping prices high. Trump has also argued that U.S. military defence of Gulf states is exploited by those governments through "imposing high oil prices," linking security commitments to perceptions of oil pricing behaviour.
The UAE departure reduces the number of unified voices within OPEC and OPEC+, and introduces new uncertainty into coordination among major producers at a moment when regional security risks continue to threaten shipping lanes and the steady flow of energy supplies. How the remaining members will respond structurally and politically to the absence of the UAE remains to be seen; the announcement itself underscores the fragility of cohesion in the producer groups amid overlapping security and diplomatic concerns.