Bank of America’s shipping monitor, published Tuesday, shows an abrupt reconfiguration of maritime flows as geopolitical shippers and commercial operators respond to a double naval blockade that has curtailed passages through the Strait of Hormuz. In the past week, Hormuz transits fell to about 3% of typical levels, while Red Sea transits have moved higher in recent weeks as cargo and oil flows seek alternative corridors.
The tracker notes that Washington is evaluating an Iranian proposal that would allow Hormuz to reopen in exchange for deferring talks over Iran’s nuclear program. The report does not provide further outcomes or terms of that proposal, only that it is under consideration by US authorities.
Container shipping has so far avoided major operational interruptions from the conflict, according to the bank. Container spot rates appear to have reached a peak, the report said, and global port congestion in April 2026 was 0.75% lower compared with the same month a year earlier. Forward market quotes imply downside risks for container spot rates as the annual contracting season comes to a close.
US-bound container volumes tracked lower year-over-year in April 2026 on the report’s metrics, although the bank observed stronger transpacific loadings in recent weeks. That uptick is attributed to easier year-over-year comparisons and standard seasonal demand ahead of May holidays.
The closure of Hormuz has had a pronounced effect on tanker movements. Middle East crude exports in April fell sharply year-over-year, the tracker showed, while US crude exports were about 10% higher year-over-year in mid-April as releases from strategic reserves were exported. Very Large Crude Carrier, or VLCC, rates out of the Middle East have been elevated between $400,000 and $500,000 per day amid war-risk premia tied to the disruption. Bank of America expects those extreme levels to normalize as Hormuz reopens.
Nonetheless, BofA anticipates that VLCC rates will remain elevated relative to historical norms - in a range of $100,000 to $150,000 per day - supported by a restocking cycle, the return of longer tonne-mile voyages, and a fleet that is currently out of geographic position.
Dry bulk markets are also showing strength. Clarksons-sourced data in the bank’s tracker indicate dry bulk demand rose 5% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026, driven primarily by robust grain shipments. The bank notes that coal flows could expand if fuel substitution picks up in coming months, and that forward curves suggest dry bulk rate momentum should persist on a year-over-year basis into the second quarter of 2026.
Impacted sectors: tanker markets, container shipping, dry bulk and related commodity logistics.