Summary: A recent 13F filing by Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness hedge fund revealed new put option positions across several prominent semiconductor and AI-related companies. The disclosure coincides with broad weakness in AI-chip names and growing concern among investors and strategists that surging valuations, combined with higher Treasury yields, are creating a precarious environment for the sector.
Leopold Aschenbrenner's 13F, filed on Monday, lists new put positions on a swath of high-profile technology and chip companies: ASML, Advanced Micro Devices, Broadcom, Corning, Intel, Micron, NVIDIA, Oracle, Taiwan Semiconductor, and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF. The filing is a snapshot of the fund's holdings at the end of the first quarter; because many of these stocks have climbed since that date, any put options still held would be less valuable now.
Put options can serve as hedges or as outright bets on declines. In this case, the disclosed positions highlight a shift in posture from Aschenbrenner, who until recently had been noted for bullish bets on AI-related names and for finding early-stage AI exposure in lesser-followed companies such as Bloom Energy, Iren, Applied Digital, and Core Scientific. The approximately 25-year-old trader has been described as a trading phenom for those prior bullish positions.
The timing of the filing has drawn attention because it lands amid pronounced upward moves in a group of AI-chip and memory stocks. One concentration measure highlighted in recent reporting suggests AI chip valuations now rival the French Mississippi Bubble of the 1720s and surpass the Nasdaq during the dot-com era, with firms including Micron, AMD, SK Hynix, Marvell, and Intel showing parabolic moves since late March. Bank of America's Michael Hartnett summed up the atmosphere bluntly: "Exponential price action, market concentration, collapsing vol, stocks bossing bond yields higher - why melt-up everyone's new base case."
Short sellers and skeptics have been increasingly vocal. At the Sohn Investment Conference on May 14, Joyce Meng, founder of Fact Capital, warned: "A rising tide lifts all boats, and a twisting tide takes down a lot of names in the same neighborhood." Soren Aandahl, CIO of Blue Orca Capital, added historical perspective: "Railroads changed the world. The internet changed the world. But many of the early purveyors of these technologies went completely bust."
Concurrently, rising Treasury yields are exerting pressure on the market. Reporting that cited input from 32 investment managers across the US, Asia, and Europe found that while roughly 80% of those managers remained bullish on equities, many acknowledged that higher bond yields represent a mounting risk for AI-growth valuations, which are sensitive to long-duration earnings assumptions.
Goldman Sachs economist Dominic Wilson cautioned that markets are entering "a more complicated phase," and warned the rally could "build a valuation overhang" if expectations escalate too aggressively, even as demand for AI infrastructure continues to support chip suppliers.
The near-term stress test for the AI trade arrives when NVIDIA reports quarterly results on Wednesday. Market participants will focus closely on data-center revenue growth and the company’s forward guidance for indications that demand is robust enough to justify current multiples across the sector.
Key points
- Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness 13F shows put options on multiple major semiconductor and AI-related names, signaling a bearish posture in those positions.
- Rising Treasury yields and concentrated, parabolic price action among AI-chip stocks have heightened concerns that valuations may be stretched.
- The AI and semiconductor sectors face an imminent test with NVIDIA's upcoming earnings, where data-center revenue and forward guidance will be scrutinized as proof points for demand.
Risks and uncertainties
- Valuation risk: Concentrated gains and rapid price appreciation in AI-chip stocks could leave the sector vulnerable to sharp corrections, affecting semiconductor and technology sectors.
- Interest-rate risk: Elevated Treasury yields may erode the present value of long-duration AI growth expectations, posing a risk to high-multiple tech and chip equities.
- Market concentration and contagion: If a reversal occurs, clustered weakness among large-cap AI-related names could propagate losses across related hardware suppliers and ETFs.
Note: The 13F filing reflects holdings at the end of the first quarter; subsequent price moves mean the current value of the disclosed put positions may differ from the snapshot in the filing.