Two more Democratic candidates have qualified for next week’s televised debate in California’s crowded gubernatorial primary after a late withdrawal reshuffled the field. Nexstar Media Group said a fresh Emerson College Polling survey showed former California attorney general and federal cabinet official Xavier Becerra and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan had cleared the threshold required to appear on the debate stage.
The Nexstar-commissioned poll, completed after U.S. Representative Eric Swalwell suspended his campaign and resigned from Congress following accusations of sexual assault and other improprieties, put Becerra at 10% support and Mahan at 5%. Nexstar said those results place Becerra comfortably above the 5% cutoff and Mahan exactly at it, earning both seats on the stage at KRON4 studios in San Francisco next week.
Becerra, who served as secretary of health and human services under President Joe Biden and previously held the post of California attorney general, rose markedly in the latest survey. Nexstar noted he jumped from 3% in the March poll to 10% in the Emerson survey, appearing to be the principal beneficiary of Swalwell’s departure from the race.
Mahan, mayor of California’s third-largest city by population, reached the 5% threshold that Nexstar set for debate inclusion. Both candidates join a group of four contenders who had already qualified before Swalwell’s exit: Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco, and Democrats Tom Steyer and Katie Porter.
The debate will be broadcast on Nexstar’s news channels in six of the state’s largest markets, presenting a high-profile opportunity for candidates to expand name recognition and voter support. The network commissioned the Emerson poll to reassess the field after Swalwell, 45, left the campaign on Sunday. Swalwell has denied the allegations but suspended his campaign, and his withdrawal removed a candidate who had previously qualified for the debate.
Nexstar’s poll found former Fox News host Steve Hilton leading the overall field at 17%. Chad Bianco, the sheriff of Riverside County, and Democrat Tom Steyer, the hedge fund billionaire who is self-funding his bid, were both at 14%. Becerra and former U.S. Representative Katie Porter were tied at 10%, with Mahan at 5%. The largest single share of respondents, 23%, remained undecided.
Emerson College Polling surveyed 1,000 likely primary voters on Monday and Tuesday and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The preliminary inclusion of Becerra also alters the demographic profile of the debate stage; his presence adds a non-white candidate after earlier controversy prompted the University of Southern California to cancel a planned March 25 debate following criticism that the six qualifiers at that time were all white.
California’s primary system sends the top two vote-getters to the November runoff, regardless of party affiliation, in what is commonly called a jungle primary. There are 61 candidates who qualified for the June 2 primary ballot: 24 Democrats and 12 Republicans are among that larger field. Historically, the state has only elected white men to the governor’s office, a fact cited in discussions about representation on debate stages.
The revised debate roster underscores how rapidly campaign dynamics can shift in a large, crowded primary, and how a single withdrawal can open space for other candidates to gain exposure. The upcoming Nexstar debate will test whether the polling snapshots translate to durable gains as the contest moves toward the June primary.