With an appeals court set to hand down a ruling on July 7, the future leadership of France's National Rally (RN) hangs in the balance. The decision will either overturn Marine Le Pen's election ban and allow her to pursue a fourth presidential bid, or it will leave the party to advance under the younger leadership of Jordan Bardella into an election less than a year away.
Le Pen, 57, was handed a five-year ban from public office and a four-year jail sentence by a French court in March 2025 for embezzlement of European Parliament funds, a sentence that is currently subject to appeal. That conviction sent shockwaves through French politics and forced the RN, which remains a strong presence in polls, to confront the prospect of succession planning much earlier than party veterans had anticipated.
Inside the party, reactions have ranged from strategizing for an orderly transition to palpable unease among lawmakers who have long rallied behind Le Pen. Several deputies who entered parliament under her stewardship described the prospect of her being definitively barred as a personal loss.
"You can never be totally prepared. It would be a kind of personal grief if it happened," RN lawmaker Thomas Ménagé told reporters, while also signalling the party's intent to accept a legal outcome despite his characterization of the verdict as unfair. "However unfair the verdict is, we’ll accept the decision, we’re not revolutionaries," he added.
Jordan Bardella, 30, the party's current figurehead in day-to-day politics, has been cast by some as the RN's natural Plan B. Yet his swift rise to party chief and potential presidential contender has exposed internal divisions over how the RN should position itself on economic questions and broader policy.
Bardella has promoted a more free-market approach than some associate with Le Pen, including policy proposals on pensions that have prompted questions among party insiders about how a Bardella manifesto might diverge from Le Pen's carefully built platform. Earlier this year he recruited a personal adviser from an investment fund linked to libertarian financier Pierre-Edouard Stérin, a move that has been interpreted by some inside the RN as signalling a tilt on economic themes.
Despite those differences, senior party figures publicly stress unity. A senior RN lawmaker said preparations have not produced hostilities, noting a June 12 meeting attended by Le Pen, Bardella and their close aides to map out scenarios for the period after July 7. "Whether it’s one or the other, neither is going to pack a bag and hit the (campaign) road on their own. They will be a team," Laurent Jacobelli, a senior RN lawmaker, said.
But outside of staged unity, analysts and party insiders highlight risks linked to Bardella's relative inexperience. Voters and opponents alike are expected to scrutinize whether the young leader can match Le Pen's campaign resilience and familiarity with high-stakes political battles.
Media attention has also underscored Bardella's vulnerability to image scrutiny. He has faced questions about how elements of his personal life, such as his relationship with Maria Carolina of Bourbon-Two Sicilies, could sit with blue-collar voters who form a core RN constituency. Images of Bardella attending the Monaco Grand Prix on a day when a protest took place in response to the killing of a young girl prompted private rebukes from party officials close to Le Pen, illustrating how optics have become a sensitive matter.
Opinion polls currently put the RN in a strong position as France heads toward 2027. An Ifop-Fiducial poll for LCI and Le Figaro showed Bardella at as much as 37% of voting intentions in the first round, compared with Le Pen's 32%. IFOP's Frederic Dabi noted this split on LCI TV, describing the divergence between the two figures as "a real turning point," and pointing out Bardella's relative strength among private-sector workers, business owners and voters aged 50 to 64.
Polls also indicate that Bardella would fare better in a second-round runoff against a left-wing candidate than he would against a centrist rival. At the same time, Le Pen's initial tactic of appealing to public outrage over her conviction and accusing the judiciary of political bias appears to have had limited traction; most voters dismiss those accusations, including some RN supporters who said she is not above the law.
The coming appeal ruling therefore has multiple implications. It will decide who formally carries the RN's standard into a presidential election less than a year away, and it may also influence internal debates over economic direction, candidate messaging and voter outreach. With France the European Union's second-biggest economy and the RN polling strongly, the decision's political reverberations are likely to be felt across domestic political planning and by constituencies where RN support is strongest.
For now, RN figures publicly maintain a composure that seeks to reassure both party ranks and voters that the leadership will remain cohesive regardless of the court's outcome. Privately, the anticipation of the July 7 ruling underscores the balancing act the party faces between honoring the legacy of a leader who transformed it into a parliamentary force and preparing for a potential new chapter under a markedly younger front-runner.
As the legal timetable moves closer to a verdict, the RN's choices on messaging, team composition and economic positioning will be closely watched by supporters, rivals and the broader public. Whether that scrutiny will sharpen into electoral advantage or translate into questions about experience and continuity will depend in part on the court's decision and how the party adapts in its aftermath.