BRASÍLIA/SAO PAULO July 2 - A growing public conflict between far-right Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and his stepmother, former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro, has intensified just months before October’s general election and risks weakening the senator’s already fragile appeal to women voters.
Michelle resigned on Tuesday from her post as head of the Liberal Party’s women’s wing amid an increasingly bitter dispute with her stepsons. The split boiled over after a video posted last week and widely circulated online in which she accused Flavio of having "disrespected" and "mistreated" her by publicly criticizing her participation in party affairs, a move she described as a "stab in the back."
In the video Michelle said: "I understood that he didn’t want my support - or that it was insignificant - so I withdrew, kept to myself. That is how I remain." The former first lady, 44, has been a central figure in the party’s outreach to conservative and evangelical women, traveling domestically to recruit support and soften the movement’s hard-edged public image.
Her departure removes one of Senator Bolsonaro’s most effective messengers to female constituencies at a moment when polls indicate he trails badly among women. A BTG Pactual/Nexus poll released on Monday found that in a hypothetical runoff between incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Bolsonaro, Lula would lead among women 55% to 37%, while the senator held an advantage among men 49% to 42%. Among all voters the poll showed Lula with 49% and Senator Bolsonaro with 43%.
"In a tightly contested election, any variable moves the market," said political scientist Rafael Favetti, noting the potential weight of such fissures as campaigns vie for marginal gains.
Observers and some voters expressed concern that the family dispute could influence voting decisions. "I will consider Michelle’s points, not about family, that’s personal, but about the difficulties in appointing women candidates," said Thaise Lima, a lawyer in Sao Paulo who identifies as right-wing. "Women still don’t have strong representation in politics."
Family dynamics and political roles
For years Michelle Bolsonaro worked to assemble a network of female supporters inside churches and conservative organizations across Brazil, helping to temper the polarizing image of a movement closely associated with her husband’s combative rhetoric. Her role grew when the former president, who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for trying to overturn his 2022 election defeat, was later moved to house arrest; at that time she was reported to be one of the few people with full access to him, reinforcing her influence.
Close associates say Michelle is weighing a run for the Senate this year, according to a person close to her. Polling firms have included her as a possible presidential candidate in their hypothetical matchups for months.
But tensions with Jair Bolsonaro’s sons from prior marriages have escalated since Flavio began his presidential campaign late last year, as he attempts to present himself as a more measured version of his outspoken father. The internal dispute took a public turn as some of Flavio’s allies resisted reconciling with Michelle and her associates.
One right-wing influencer, Paulo Figueiredo, released a video last week saying: "Women vote really badly." Flavio Bolsonaro later described Figueiredo’s remarks as misguided.
Efforts to pivot and ongoing campaign strategy
Flavio Bolsonaro has been visibly trying to address his weakness with female voters. He has been photographed wearing a T-shirt that reads "girl dad" and has discussed the possibility of choosing a woman as his running mate - an idea that sources close to him say has gained traction in recent days. Daniella Marques, an ally of Jair Bolsonaro’s former finance minister, has joined the senator’s campaign as an economic adviser and has emerged as a potential running mate or finance minister.
Despite those outreach efforts, Michelle said in her video that the senator ignored her views when shaping the party’s national strategy. Her withdrawal from the party role underscores a rift between family members and party operatives about how to organize and prioritize outreach.
On Wednesday Flavio held a meeting in Brasilia with dozens of conservative women politicians, where he offered conciliatory comments about Michelle. She was invited but did not attend. At the meeting he said: "I have tremendous respect for Michelle, and I’m confident that we’ll get through this difficult moment and that she will be walking alongside us." His remarks appeared aimed at calming tensions, though they came after the public rupture.
Political consequences and market considerations
Campaign strategists and market watchers pay close attention to shifts in voter blocs that can alter expectations in a close race. The loss of Michelle as the party’s formal lead on women’s outreach removes an experienced organizer from the field and could complicate efforts to expand Senator Bolsonaro’s support beyond his existing base. Given the BTG Pactual/Nexus polling disparity among women and the mixed performance among men, party officials face a challenge in reshaping perceptions without alienating core supporters.
The precise electoral effect of the dispute remains uncertain. What is clear from the recent exchanges is that internal party divisions and public family confrontations have become part of the campaign narrative at a delicate point in the run-up to October’s vote.
As the campaign unfolds, both sides will need to weigh whether reconciliation is politically feasible and whether Michelle’s organizational reach can be restored or replaced by other outreach measures.
Reporting from Brasilia and Sao Paulo contributed to this story.