Stock Markets August 4, 2026 01:07 AM

Toyota lifts full-year operating profit target as weaker yen offsets China slowdown

Annual forecast raised 13% to 3.4 trillion yen even as April-June operating profit falls for a fifth straight quarter

By Derek Hwang
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Toyota raised its full-year operating profit projection to 3.4 trillion yen from 3 trillion yen, citing a weaker yen and marketing gains, even as the company reported a 9% drop in first-quarter operating profit amid weaker sales in China. The automaker also announced a substantial share buyback and a plan to cancel shares.

Toyota lifts full-year operating profit target as weaker yen offsets China slowdown
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Key Points

  • Toyota raised its annual operating profit forecast by 13% to 3.4 trillion yen for the year ending March, up from 3 trillion yen.
  • Operating profit for April-June fell 9% to 1.06 trillion yen, marking the fifth consecutive quarterly decline.
  • Toyota announced a share buyback program of up to 1 trillion yen (up to 4.22% of outstanding stock) and plans to cancel 200 million shares.

TOKYO, Aug 4 - Toyota said on Tuesday it has increased its annual operating profit forecast by 13% to 3.4 trillion yen for the financial year ending in March, up from an earlier projection of 3 trillion yen. The upward revision comes despite the automaker reporting its fifth consecutive quarterly drop in operating profit, driven in part by softer sales in China.

The company attributed the higher full-year outlook in part to a weaker yen and to steady gains from its marketing activities. Toyota said it had "steadily accumulated improvements in our marketing efforts, including increased sales supported by the establishment of alternative logistics routes to the Middle East." It described the revision as reflecting revised foreign exchange assumptions alongside those marketing improvements.

For the April-June quarter, operating profit declined 9% to 1.06 trillion yen, compared with a median analyst forecast of 1.11 trillion yen from a poll of eight analysts conducted by LSEG. The result marks Toyota's fifth straight quarter of lower operating profit.

In addition to revising its profit outlook, Toyota announced a share repurchase program of up to 1 trillion yen, which the company said equates to as much as 4.22% of its outstanding stock. The automaker also plans to cancel 200 million shares.

The company provided an exchange-rate reference of $1 = 157.4900 yen. Market data included in reporting showed USD/JPY moving higher by 0.27% at the time the figures were noted.

The combination of a strengthened yen-adjusted outlook and the ongoing quarterly earnings decline presents a mixed picture: management highlighted foreign exchange and marketing factors behind the upward revision while results for the latest quarter reflected continued pressure from weaker sales in China.

Toyota characterized the actions taken - the profit forecast revision, the buyback authorization and the planned share cancellation - as part of its broader financial and operational response to current market conditions.


Context note: The company framed the forecast increase as driven by revised foreign exchange assumptions and improvements in marketing, including logistics adjustments related to the Middle East. The April-June operating profit figure and the analyst median forecast were provided as direct comparisons for the quarter.

Risks

  • Weaker sales in China have contributed to the fifth straight quarterly decline in operating profit, posing continued revenue risk for the automotive sector.
  • Foreign exchange volatility remains a factor - the company cited revised exchange-rate assumptions in raising its profit forecast, indicating sensitivity to currency moves that can affect profitability for multinational manufacturers.
  • Execution risk around alternative logistics routes and marketing improvements could affect the extent to which those measures offset regional sales weakness, impacting automotive and transport-related markets.

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