SpaceX’s stock has cooled since a turbulent rally after its June 12 market debut, and the slide back toward the company’s $135 offer price is beginning to test investor conviction. After an initial surge that briefly put the company’s market value well above $2 trillion, trading has been uneven, with the share price dropping below the $150 opening level while remaining near the $135 offer mark.
On Tuesday the shares closed down 2.2% at $136.08, their lowest closing level since listing. That afternoon the stock reached an intraday low of $135.52. The closeness of current trading to the $135 offer price has raised the risk that SpaceX could slip under that threshold, a development some market participants say would be a symbolic setback.
"It raises the narrative that the stock is up on fluff, on speculation, on froth, and not on real fundamentals," said Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, describing how a break beneath the IPO price could be read by market watchers. The concern is not limited to institutional analysts; retail investors who bought into the launch excitement could also be affected.
"Investors who bought into the excitement around SpaceX’s listing, 'hoping to 'make a killing' will be disappointed,' said Greg Halter, director of research at Carnegie Investment Counsel. He noted that weak early returns are common among heavily hyped offerings, citing that average and median returns in the first month for such IPOs have often been negative over three decades.
SpaceX did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Price discovery, market mechanics and comparisons
Some market professionals cautioned that an early decline below the IPO price would not be unprecedented. Shares of other recently listed companies, such as Cerebras Systems which went public in May, have also traded below their offering levels, and Meta experienced a similar pullback after its debut. Those precedents are frequently brought up as a reminder that the early trading period often involves significant price discovery.
"The reality is, (SpaceX) is still undergoing some of this price discovery process," Ryan Lee, senior vice president of product and strategy at Direxion, said, characterizing the current moves as part of normal market adjustment. Gabriel Shahin, CEO at Falcon Wealth Planning, added that typical selling pressure from investors, venture capitalists and employees after lockup expirations can accentuate the short-term volatility.
"A near-term dip below the $135 threshold would not fundamentally alter our current positioning or cause us to panic-sell," Shahin said, suggesting some investors view the possibility of a short-term decline as a manageable risk rather than a trigger for wholesale selling.
Implications for other big tech listings
How SpaceX fares in the weeks ahead may influence other companies planning large offerings. OpenAI and Anthropic are among those said to be considering public listings, and market participants are watching whether SpaceX’s performance encourages faster moves to market or prompts more caution.
Carnegie’s Halter said executives and underwriters involved in major IPOs are closely monitoring SpaceX. "No one wants an IPO to flop or have the initial price be ratcheted down," he said, adding that some offerings could be pulled or re-priced lower to avoid negative optics.
By contrast, Direxion’s Lee suggested that SpaceX’s ability to raise substantial capital might nudge some cash-hungry firms to accelerate their timelines. "If I’m OpenAI or if I’m Anthropic and I’m in this true arms race to build the frontier AI model and I need capital, I’m going to try to beat the other one out the door," he said, implying capital needs could override caution about market reception.
Retail allocation, underwriting support and earnings as tests
Retail investors received roughly 20% of the allocation in SpaceX’s offering, meaning a meaningful share of individual investors stand to be affected by near-term price swings. Some market advisers warned that novice investors who treated the stock with a speculative 'meme' mentality could face losses, potentially fueling perceptions that markets favor insiders.
Underwriters commonly provide support for newly listed stocks in the initial 30 days after an offering, and given the size and visibility of SpaceX’s deal, market observers expect that support could be significant. Maria Llerena, director of financial research at Domini Impact Investments, warned that companies still reporting losses and lacking clear paths to profitability can be particularly volatile after listing. "Loss-making companies without a clear path to profitability are typically volatile and can fall below their IPO price," said Llerena.
SpaceX’s first post-IPO earnings release will be watched closely as a further test of investor sentiment and the stock’s durability. For now, trading dynamics, lockup-related selling and broader concerns about pricey technology valuations continue to shape market behavior around the company’s shares.
What sectors are affected
- Technology - valuations for high-growth tech firms are central to the reaction to SpaceX’s trading.
- Capital markets - the appetite for large, high-profile IPOs and underwriting strategies could shift based on SpaceX’s trajectory.
- Retail investing - individual investors who participated in the allocation may be disproportionately exposed to short-term volatility.