RBC Capital raised its price objective on Tesla to $500 from $475 in a research note released on Tuesday, explicitly building into the target a valuation uplift connected to a potential merger with SpaceX. The bank also refreshed its assessment of Tesla's standalone intrinsic value and adjusted segment-level forecasts.
Analyst Tom Narayan framed the new target as reflecting "a 25-30% premium to current trading levels (and a 15% premium to the stock's intrinsic value) owing to a potential SpaceX acquisition scenario based on unconfirmed media reports." The firm said the most plausible form of such a deal would be an all-stock transaction in which SpaceX would acquire Tesla at a 20-30% premium.
RBC described the strategic rationale for a tie-up as rooted in operational collaboration across several areas. Those areas include proprietary chip manufacturing, the use of Megapacks to support data center energy needs, and joint work on AI training and fleet management services. The bank also noted that existing Tesla shareholders would likely demand a premium in any deal partly because CEO Elon Musk would be expected to control more than 50% of a combined entity, compared with roughly a 20% stake he now holds in Tesla.
Separately from the SpaceX-acquisition assumption, RBC calculated a standalone intrinsic value for Tesla of $435 per share. Within that valuation framework, Narayan increased the robotaxi segment valuation by 20% on the basis of a higher forecast for the global robotaxi fleet, describing robotaxi as "currently Tesla's most robust opportunity" within what RBC cites as a $4.2 trillion total addressable market.
Conversely, RBC reduced its humanoid valuation by about 40%, reflecting a lower U.S. market share assumption of 20% versus a prior 50% assumption. The firm also trimmed its energy storage valuation by roughly 30%, attributing the cut to a smaller global market outlook and intensifying competitive pressures in that business.
The note ties these segment-level changes into the broader revised intrinsic valuation while separately modelling an acquisition premium scenario linked to SpaceX. RBC emphasized that the potential acquisition reasoning is based on media accounts that remain unconfirmed.
Key metrics and assumptions highlighted in the note:
- New price target: $500 (previously $475)
- Standalone intrinsic value: $435 per share
- SpaceX acquisition scenario premium: 25-30% to current trading levels; 15% to intrinsic value
- Potential deal structure: all-stock transaction with SpaceX acquiring Tesla at a 20-30% premium
- Robotaxi valuation: +20% on higher global fleet forecast; total addressable market cited at $4.2 trillion
- Humanoid valuation: -~40% with U.S. market share assumption lowered to 20% from 50%
- Energy storage valuation: -30% on downgraded global market outlook and increased competition