Summary: Aeroméxico and airport operator GAPB released second-quarter 2026 results that paint a mixed picture for Mexico's air travel sector. Aeroméxico's EBITDAR fell versus the prior quarter and landed at the low end of guidance, with fuel costs identified as a material headwind. GAPB recorded year-over-year EBITDA growth and margin expansion even as passenger volumes declined, prompting an adjustment to its full-year traffic outlook and a reduction in planned capital spending.
Aeroméxico results and guidance
Aeroméxico reported second-quarter EBITDAR of $264 million, a 21% decline from the previous quarter and at the low end of its quarterly guidance band. Management attributed part of the softness to a $30 million fuel headwind included in the results. Total revenues rose 12.5% year-over-year, and the airline recorded an EBITDAR margin of 18% for the quarter.
Premium cabin sales remained significant, with premium revenues accounting for 43% of passenger-related revenue - up one percentage point from the same period in 2025. The carrier generated $360 million in net operating cash flow during the quarter, funds that were directed toward investments and debt reduction.
Looking ahead, Aeroméxico guided to sequential revenue growth in the second half of 2026, forecasting year-over-year increases of 12-14% in the third quarter and 14.5-16.5% in the fourth quarter. Management expects EBITDAR margins of 26.5-29.5% in Q3 and 28-31% in Q4. Those ranges imply a full-year 2026 EBITDAR between $1.45 billion and $1.59 billion - a range that brackets the FactSet consensus of $1.5 billion.
Guidance assumptions include average all-in fuel costs of $3.20 per gallon in Q3 and $3.00 per gallon in Q4. Market data cited in the report shows the spot U.S. jet-fuel price at $3.38 per gallon, a level noted after recent tensions between Iran and the United States.
GAPB quarterly performance and revised outlook
Airport operator GAPB posted second-quarter EBITDA of 6 billion Mexican pesos, an 8% increase year-over-year. The uplift occurred even as passenger traffic fell 6% year-over-year; management said the decline in volumes was partially offset by higher commercial revenue per passenger and the consolidation of the CBX segment into results.
Operating costs were broadly flat year-over-year despite a 22% rise in employee-related expenses, and EBITDA margin expanded by 200 basis points to 69% in the quarter.
In response to observed traffic trends, GAPB updated its full-year 2026 guidance. The company now expects passenger traffic growth of negative 3% to flat, compared with prior guidance of positive 2-5%. At the same time, GAPB raised its EBITDA growth projection to 10-12% year-over-year from the previous 8-11% range. Capital expenditure guidance was trimmed to 12 billion pesos from 13.5 billion pesos.
Analyst stance
Jefferies maintained Hold ratings on both GAPB and Aeroméxico following the quarter, reflecting the mixed signals from results and the ongoing sensitivity of operating performance to jet-fuel prices and passenger demand.
Note: figures and guidance cited are those provided by the companies and by Jefferies in their published results and guidance materials.