Morgan Stanley opened coverage of Coinbase Global with an Equal Weight rating and a $250 price target, according to a research note released Thursday. Analyst Michael Cyprys characterized the firm as becoming a broader crypto services provider but also stressed that the business remains linked to the swings of the crypto market.
Cyprys said the $250 target implies approximately 40% upside from prevailing share levels, but he also pointed to a wide span of possible outcomes - specifically a $50-to-$400 valuation range - as the rationale for a neutral recommendation.
"We are more constructive on the franchise than the shares at current valuation," he wrote, emphasizing that the company’s strength as a platform does not necessarily translate to an immediate bullish view on the stock price.
The analyst traced Coinbase’s transformation from a Bitcoin-focused exchange into what he described as a full-stack platform. That platform now includes retail and institutional trading, custody services, a stablecoin effort, derivatives, staking, payments and onchain infrastructure. Cyprys noted that Coinbase finished the second quarter with 7.6 million monthly transacting users and $246 billion of assets held on the platform.
Despite the diversification, Cyprys identified retail crypto trading - which represents roughly 40% of Coinbase’s revenue - as the principal swing factor affecting near-term results.
On timing and earnings, Morgan Stanley’s analyst anticipates a cyclical reset in 2026, followed by a pronounced rebound in 2027 and a return to a more normalized operating environment in 2028. For 2028 he projects about $3.0 billion of adjusted EBITDA; his $250 target is derived by applying a 21-times multiple to that adjusted EBITDA estimate. That multiple aligns with Coinbase’s historical average and the median multiple among digital-asset peers, according to the note.
Cyprys also cited several factors that could broaden Coinbase’s addressable market, including regulatory clarity, the company’s push to become an "Everything Exchange" by adding assets such as equities and prediction markets, and investments in its stablecoin and Base infrastructure. However, he warned that these initiatives will likely draw additional competition and could exert gradual pricing pressure.
In his view, diversification should lift the earnings floor and create more channels for monetizing customer relationships, but it will not remove the underlying cyclicality tied to crypto markets.
Contextual notes: The research note also included references to broader investor tools and strategy products, and described the firm’s valuation framework and scenario range as central to its Equal Weight recommendation.