Kepler Cheuvreux has opened coverage of OHB with a Buy recommendation and set a EUR 260 price target, according to a note shared with clients on Friday. The brokerage singled out OHB as "one of the few listed ways to gain exposure to Europe’s sovereign space and defence build-up through an end-to-end business model spanning the full space value chain."
The research note relays management’s medium-term ambition to expand TOP (the group’s equivalent of revenues) to above EUR 4 billion, up from EUR 1.2 billion forecast for FY 2025. Kepler points out that this trajectory implies a revenue compound annual growth rate in excess of 20%.
On profitability, Kepler expects adjusted EBITDA to rise at a rate north of 30% CAGR. The firm attributes that outlook to operating leverage as the business scales and to a shift toward a "richer defence mix," which should support margin expansion as programmes convert into higher-margin defence work.
Kepler also emphasised structural advantages that could help OHB realise its pipeline. "OHB’s position as an independent German prime contractor, together with sovereignty-driven procurement and long-standing institutional relationships, should support the conversion of this pipeline into future growth," the note said. The research house flagged the recent EUR 0.5 billion capital raise as an important enabler, providing balance sheet flexibility to fund the planned industrial ramp-up and to allow participation in larger sovereign programmes.
The analyst pointed to valuation dynamics in the sector as context for the call. Following what Kepler characterised as a sharp de-rating in OHB and the broader space sector, the firm identified the potential for a stronger order intake in the second half of the year to act as a catalyst. That development would come ahead of what Kepler described as greater visibility on SATCOMBw4 in 2027.
The firm’s initiation frames OHB as a listed vehicle for investors seeking exposure to Europe’s growing sovereign-driven space and defence agenda, underpinned by an end-to-end industrial footprint. Kepler’s projections on TOP and adjusted EBITDA are central to its valuation case, while the recent capital raise and the company’s procurement positioning are cited as practical supports for executing the plan.