Jefferies has adjusted its valuation for Temple & Webster Group, lowering the firm's price target to A$8.95 from A$14.50 while keeping a buy rating on the ASX-listed online homewares retailer.
Alongside the change in target, Jefferies revised down its revenue projections for the company by 6% for fiscal 2026, 15% for fiscal 2027 and 18% for fiscal 2028. Those cuts follow Temple & Webster's own guidance issued earlier in the week.
Temple & Webster's guidance for fiscal year 2026 places revenue in a range between A$665 million and A$675 million, which the company presented as a 12% increase compared with the prior year. Jefferies noted that this guidance is below Visible Alpha's consensus forecast of A$714.8 million. The company provided a dollar-equivalent range of A$665 million to A$675 million as approximately $482.79 million to $490.05 million.
Jefferies' commentary on the trading update emphasized that, despite Temple & Webster operating a discount-oriented model, the latest trading signals point to significant consumer pressure. The brokerage described consumer confidence as being at historical lows, interpreting the update as evidence of severe stress among shoppers.
In light of this environment, Jefferies said management appears to be positioning the business defensively for what it expects could be a difficult 12-month period. The brokerage characterized the company's strategy as focusing on protecting profitability by actively pulling margin levers - actions intended to preserve performance through tighter conditions rather than pursuing growth at previous margins.
The combination of a lowered price target, reduced multi-year revenue forecasts and management's margin-preservation stance frames Jefferies' updated view of Temple & Webster. The broker's decision to retain a buy rating, even after trimming expectations, indicates it still sees upside relative to current pricing while acknowledging nearer-term headwinds in consumer demand.
Detailed company guidance and analyst revisions:
- New Jefferies price target: A$8.95 (previously A$14.50).
- Revenue estimate reductions: -6% (FY2026), -15% (FY2027), -18% (FY2028).
- Company FY2026 revenue guidance: A$665m - A$675m (A$482.79m - A$490.05m), cited as +12% year-over-year; below Visible Alpha consensus of A$714.8m.