Goldman Sachs launched coverage of Boliden with a "sell" recommendation and a 12-month price objective of 468 Swedish crowns per share, representing about 13.1% potential downside from the stock's last quoted price. The bank singled out operational uncertainty at the company's cornerstone Garpenberg operation following a seismic event in March 2026 as the primary driver of its cautious stance.
Goldman described Garpenberg as Boliden's largest and most profitable zinc and silver asset and said the March event displaced part of the Lappberget orebody. The affected zone historically supplied roughly 70%-75% of the mine's extracted ore, creating a substantial shortfall in material available for processing.
For 2026 Goldman expects Garpenberg to route about 1.3 million tonnes of ore through its concentrator and mill, below Boliden's own guidance of 1.5 million tonnes for the year. The bank does not anticipate that Garpenberg's annual throughput will return above 3 million tonnes at any point this decade. By contrast, consensus estimates currently imply a recovery to 3.2-3.4 million tonnes by 2029-2030, while company guidance prior to the March event had been 3.7 million tonnes.
Goldman quantified the earnings impact of reduced mined volumes by estimating that each 100,000 tonnes of annual mined material contributes roughly 250 million-300 million crowns of EBITDA. On that basis, the curtailed production profile at Garpenberg represents a meaningful headwind for group profitability.
On a group basis the broker projects Boliden's EBITDA will come in at 26.44 billion crowns in 2026, largely in line with Visible Alpha consensus of 26.94 billion crowns. The gap widens in 2027, where Goldman models EBITDA of 28.71 billion crowns versus consensus of 30.33 billion crowns. Earnings per share are forecast at 40.11 crowns for 2026 and to rise to 46.25 crowns in 2027 under Goldman's scenario.
Valuation was derived by Goldman using an equal-weighted blend of net asset value and next-12-month EV/EBITDA, producing the 468 crowns target. The brokerage noted the stock currently trades at about 6.2 times next-12-month EV/EBITDA, which sits above Boliden's five-year median multiple of 5.5 times.
Goldman also flagged pressure on the group's smelting operations, projecting a 1.7 billion crown year-on-year decline in smelter EBITDA in 2026. The broker attributed additional margin risk to a reduced supply of internally produced concentrates resulting from disruption at Garpenberg and a slower-than-expected restart at the Tara zinc mine in Ireland. Reduced internal feed would increase reliance on third-party concentrate purchases at less favourable market terms.
Capital expenditure is another focal point in Goldman's analysis. The bank forecasts Boliden will spend 15.7 billion crowns in 2026, a level slightly above the company's guidance. It cautioned that spending could remain elevated as remediation and development work at Garpenberg continues.
Goldman further questioned the timing of a planned 4 billion crown hoist expansion at Garpenberg, suggesting the project could be delayed by 18 to 24 months. The analysts noted the Nautanen copper-gold deposit near Aitik as a project that may present a relatively more attractive growth option, while stopping short of recommending a change in corporate strategy.
Clear summary
- Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of Boliden with a sell rating and a 12-month target of 468 Swedish crowns, implying about 13.1% downside.
- The broker cited a March 2026 seismic event at Garpenberg that displaced part of the Lappberget orebody - a zone that historically accounted for roughly 70%-75% of mined ore.
- Goldman projects lower throughput at Garpenberg in 2026, elevated capex and reduced internal concentrate supply, all of which weigh on near-term earnings and valuation.
Key points
- Production impact - Garpenberg expected to process about 1.3 million tonnes in 2026 versus prior guidance of 1.5 million tonnes, and the bank does not see annual throughput recovering above 3 million tonnes this decade.
- Valuation and earnings - Goldman forecasts group EBITDA of 26.44 billion crowns in 2026 and expects EPS of 40.11 crowns in 2026, rising to 46.25 crowns in 2027, while valuing the stock at an equal-weighted NAV and EV/EBITDA-derived target of 468 crowns.
- Supply chain pressures - disruption at Garpenberg and a slower restart at Tara could reduce internal concentrate availability, driving greater reliance on third-party feedstock at unfavourable terms and pressuring smelter margins.
Risks and uncertainties
- Operational timeline risk - the extent and duration of production disruption at Garpenberg following the March 2026 seismic event are uncertain and underpin Goldman's more conservative production and EBITDA forecasts. This affects metals supply and processing operations.
- Capital and project risk - higher-than-expected remediation and development spending at Garpenberg could keep capital expenditure elevated beyond Goldman's 15.7 billion crown 2026 forecast, with potential implications for free cash flow and investment allocation.
- Concentrate sourcing risk - reduced internal concentrate from Garpenberg and slower restart at Tara increases exposure to third-party purchases at less favourable market terms, which could depress smelter EBITDA and margins.
(This report describes Goldman Sachs' initial coverage and does not introduce new estimates beyond those presented by the broker.)