Goldman Sachs moved Porsche AG to a "buy" recommendation from "neutral" on Thursday and raised its 12-month price objective to €59 from €39. That new target is based on a 20x target multiple - up from the prior 15x multiple - applied to a 50/50 blend of fiscal year 2027 and 2028 earnings per share estimates. Using that methodology, Goldman said the revised price target corresponds to about a 14.5x multiple on fiscal year 2029 estimated EPS.
As part of its model update, the broker trimmed Porsche's fiscal year 2026 EPS estimate to €1.79 from €1.99, a reduction of 10.2%. At the same time, Goldman raised its fiscal year 2028 EPS projection to €3.37 from €3.02, an increase of 11.7%. The fiscal year 2027 EPS forecast was slightly lowered by 2.1% to €2.52. The firm also anticipates an EPS compound annual growth rate to 2030 of 30%.
The analysts highlighted two principal near-term drivers behind their view: normalization of the 911 model mix and reductions in indirect costs. Goldman provided specific assumptions for pricing and mix that underpin its outlook. It expects average selling price - or ASP - accretion for the 911 line of roughly 12% in fiscal year 2026 and 5% in fiscal year 2027. These figures compare with Visible Alpha Consensus Data, which show consensus 911 ASP accretion of 5.9% and 2.4% for the same years.
On a group-wide basis, Goldman forecasts total group ASP growth of 10.4% for fiscal year 2026 and 5.1% for fiscal year 2027.
The report attributed the skewed launch mix of the 992.2 generation to supplier-related force-majeure disruptions in the second half of 2024, which concentrated early deliveries in base and mid-tier variants. Goldman Sachs expects the mix to mature by 2027, noting this path would mirror the prior 992 generation, which reached maturity in its third to fourth year.
Goldman also examined Porsche's cost base. The bank noted selling, general and administrative expenses were 12.9% of group revenue in fiscal year 2025, higher than comparisons cited in the report: Ferrari at 9%, BMW at 7.9% and Mercedes-Benz Group at 9.2%.
On workforce coverage, Goldman said that only 76.5% of Porsche's 41,800 total employees as of fiscal year 2025 were included under the company's 2030 employment guarantee.
In its profit forecasts, Goldman projected group EBIT of €2.22 billion in fiscal year 2026, rising to €3.11 billion in fiscal year 2027 and €4.17 billion in fiscal year 2028. Corresponding group EBIT margins were forecast at 6.7% for fiscal year 2026, 8.6% for fiscal year 2027 and 9.7% for fiscal year 2028.
The analysts also set out delivery expectations by region and overall. They forecast China deliveries of approximately 28,000 units in fiscal year 2026 and 23,000 units in fiscal year 2027, down from 93,000 units in fiscal year 2022. China's share of total deliveries was projected at 11% in fiscal year 2026 and 9.5% in fiscal year 2027.
For overall volumes, Goldman forecast total deliveries of 250,459 units in fiscal year 2026 and 246,201 units in fiscal year 2027, which the firm said represent declines of 10% and 2% respectively versus earlier periods.
Goldman's upgrade reflects a valuation adjustment and a view that improving model mix and indirect cost management will lift profitability beyond the near-term EPS cut for fiscal year 2026. The bank's forecast mix and ASP assumptions, along with the delivery and margin projections, form the basis for its higher 12-month target.