Ganfeng Lithium Group Co. told market participants this week that recent developments have made reliable price forecasting for lithium increasingly challenging. Speaking at a conference in Shanghai on Wednesday, Roy Zhang, president assistant at the company, said market behavior this year has been unusually turbulent.
"Market swings have grown more extreme and price cycles have shortened," Zhang said, noting that the industry has observed a complete price cycle just since the start of the year. "We have seen an entire price cycle just from the beginning of this year, which is not quite common," he added. Zhang also emphasized the lack of clear near-term consensus on prices: "I don’t think anyone has an obvious view about where the price will be in the next 6 to 12 months."
The company highlighted several dynamics that are complicating forecasts. Lithium remains a fast-growing market, and the simultaneous rapid expansion of supply, demand and trading activity has heightened unpredictability. On the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, Ganfeng said, trading often reflects sentiment more than underlying fundamentals, magnifying short-term swings.
Volatility this year has been driven in part by uncertain supply prospects from key production regions and by shifts in demand composition. Beyond electric vehicles, large batteries for energy storage systems have become a significant source of consumption and are now an important factor in industry outlook assessments.
Market prices underscore the turbulence. Spot prices of lithium carbonate in China were 23% lower year-to-date, at 91,500 yuan per ton, after recent declines tied to weaker demand expectations. Earlier this year prices surged, reaching above 200,000 yuan per ton in May before retreating.
Zhang quantified demand growth and the speed of supply responses, saying lithium demand is expanding at roughly 40% this year while supply is rapidly catching up. That combination, he warned, leaves the market finely balanced.
"Even a small disruption in the supply chain will change the market very fast," Zhang said, cautioning that a single major mine failure could quickly push the market into shortage territory. His comments underscored the sensitivity of lithium balances to isolated operational shocks given the current growth and supply trajectory.
Note: This report presents the company’s statements and market figures as described at the conference. Where the conference remarks were cited directly, quotes are retained.