Shares of Evonik Industries rose just over 4% on Friday following a note from Deutsche Bank that predicted the company would outperform its second-quarter earnings guidance by a notable margin.
Deutsche Bank analyst Virginie Boucher-Ferte put forward a second-quarter core earnings (EBITDA) estimate of 25 million, which the analyst described as "10% & 4% above Vara (May 27) and Bloomberg consensus respectively, and >14% above company guidance (EBITDA >=\u20ac550m)."
Boucher-Ferte identified the more commoditised Advanced Technologies segment as the primary driver of expected growth. That division, she said, includes Methionine and Crosslinkers, in addition to C4 and Infrastructure, which she singled out as contributors to the forecasted beat.
On the back of the anticipated Q2 strength and signs that some momentum could extend into the third quarter, Deutsche Bank raised its full-year 2026 EBITDA projection to \u20ac2.09 billion, up from \u20ac1.96 billion - a 7% increase versus its prior forecast. According to the analyst, that revised figure sits 5% above the top end and 13% above the mid-point of Evonik's own guidance, and 2% higher than Vara consensus.
Given what she called the likely magnitude of the Q2 "beat" and the accompanying upward revision to full-year guidance, Boucher-Ferte wrote that she expects the company to issue a pre-release of results sometime between the end of June and early July.
Deutsche Bank also adjusted its price target on Evonik to \u20ac17 from \u20ac16, while retaining a "hold" recommendation. Evonik is scheduled to report second-quarter results on August 4.
Clear summary
Deutsche Bank projects Evonik will exceed its second-quarter EBITDA guidance by at least 14%, forecasting \u20ac625 million in core earnings for Q2. The bank raised its 2026 EBITDA estimate to \u20ac2.09 billion and increased its price target to \u20ac17, while keeping a hold rating. The analyst flagged Advanced Technologies - including Methionine, Crosslinkers, C4 and Infrastructure - as key growth contributors and suggested a pre-release of Q2 results could arrive between late June and early July.
Key points
- Deutsche Bank forecasts Q2 core EBITDA of \u20ac625 million, cited as at least 14% above company guidance (EBITDA >=\u20ac550m).
- The bank lifted its full-year 2026 EBITDA forecast to \u20ac2.09 billion, 7% above its prior estimate and above the top end and midpoint of company guidance.
- Evonik's Advanced Technologies division (Methionine, Crosslinkers, C4, Infrastructure) is expected to be a principal driver of the anticipated beat.
Sectors impacted
- Specialty chemicals and related industrial markets tied to the Advanced Technologies product lines.
- Equity markets tracking chemical producers and companies with commodity-exposed divisions.
Risks and uncertainties
- The expectation of a substantial Q2 "beat" and a potential pre-release is an analyst forecast, not a company confirmation; timing and magnitude remain uncertain.
- Deutsche Bank maintained a "hold" rating despite raising the price target, reflecting caution about valuation or near-term outlook.
- Any deviation between actual results and the analyst's \u20ac625 million Q2 EBITDA projection could alter market reaction and guidance interpretation.
Additional context
Boucher-Ferte noted that some of the strength anticipated for Q2 may carry into Q3, prompting her view that the companys guidance range of \u20ac1.7-2.0 billion could be conservative. Investors will watch Evonik's formal Q2 release on August 4 for confirmation of the analyst's projections and any management commentary on momentum across its business segments.