Citi has trimmed its 12-month price target for Strategy Inc. to $136 from $260, according to a note published Wednesday, even as the firm retained a Buy rating and kept Strategy's designation as High Risk. The reduction in the target follows a 27% downward revision to Citi's one-year Bitcoin forecast, which is now about $81,800.
Analyst Peter Christiansen said the updated price target incorporates two principal components: roughly a 40% uplift tied to a higher Bitcoin price over the coming 12 months, and an estimated 16% contribution from mNAV expansion relative to current levels.
Citi also materially reduced its projections for adjusted Bitcoin Yield at Strategy. The bank revised fiscal 2026 yield down sharply from 10.4% to 2.6%, and lowered the fiscal 2027 estimate from 10.5% to 3.9%.
On Strategy's most recent capital measures, Christiansen characterized the package as buying additional time for the company to achieve stabilization, saying it "buys more time for stabilization." Last week the company issued $1.15 billion of shares, which raised its USD Reserve from $1.4 billion to $2.55 billion. Citi noted that this reserve level is sufficient to cover approximately 17.4 months of preferred dividends.
The capital plan also provides authorization for a further $1.25 billion increase in the USD Reserve and permits repurchases of up to $1 billion each of MSTR ordinary equity and preferred shares.
Citi's note highlighted valuation gaps in the preferred instruments, reporting that STRK and STRD preferred shares are trading at about 45% discounts to par. By contrast, the firm expects Strategy to place greater emphasis on STRC, which trades at a roughly 15% discount and represents a larger position with a relative size Citi values at $10.5 billion.
Addressing broader market dynamics around Bitcoin, Christiansen argued Strategy itself "shouldn't be the BTC narrative." He estimated that Strategy's trading activity represented only 0.79% of trusted spot Bitcoin volume over the past 12 months, and projected that the company's Bitcoin holdings would fall only modestly - from 4.0% to 3.8% - of the 21 million token supply by year-end.
Sectors affected: cryptocurrency markets, financial services tied to digital-asset exposure, and equity/preferred securities markets.