Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he will give greater credence to another higher inflation reading than to a single lower one when assessing the latest data published this week. Waller cited a run of five to six consecutive months of increases in inflation readings as the backdrop for his view.
"If I get another higher one, I'm gonna treat that as signal, not noise," he said, adding that a downbeat inflation print would not be enough on its own to alter his judgment. In that event, Waller said he would want to see a couple more similar downward readings before concluding that inflation is on a sustained path lower.
On labor market developments, Waller noted a pattern of persistently solid job reports. He described the unemployment rate as "traditionally the best indicator of the labor market" and said the measure has been very stable. Waller also indicated he is not concerned about large revisions to payroll numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, explaining that the agency has been receiving more survey responses later in the data collection cycle.
Turning to monetary-policy communication, Waller argued that the present moment is not appropriate for using forward guidance. He said surprising market participants is undesirable and that markets should be provided with as much information as possible.
Waller also commented on the potential role of artificial intelligence in financial markets, suggesting AI may be affecting financial conditions. He cautioned that if AI were to pull back, "there would be pretty big changes in financial conditions."
On the Fed's balance sheet and reserves framework, Waller said he does not see a reason to operate in a scarce reserves regime. He noted that if banks require fewer reserves, shrinking the balance sheet to reflect that reduced need would not be problematic. A task force will examine how seriously the Fed can consider balance-sheet reductions, though Waller said he "has a hard time seeing where the balance sheet at its current size is causing problems."
The comments outline how Waller is weighing incoming inflation prints against labor-market data and financial-market dynamics, while remaining cautious about communication tools and open to adjustments to the Fed's balance-sheet footprint if reserve demand declines.