Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
7,197 total articles
Minutes from the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 meeting indicate a growing contingent of policymakers viewed interest rate increases as a potential response to inflation running above the 2% target, a stance reinforced by the inflationary effects of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. At the same time, many participants continued to include rate reducti…
San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly told a Utah business audience that the U.S. economy remains fundamentally sound even as the conflict in Iran injects uncertainty and market volatility. Daly pointed to continued consumer spending and business investment, acknowledged potential inflation and labor-market concerns, and stressed the Fe…
U.S. officials pursued a temporary truce with Iran via back-channel negotiations run through Pakistan even as the president amplified public threats toward Tehran. Pakistan's military leadership presented a ceasefire proposal to Iran that ultimately produced a two-week pause and reopened the Strait of Hormuz, according to people familiar with the d…
Kenya's central bank left its policy rate at 8.75%, halting an easing trend that spanned almost two years while it evaluates the economic consequences of the US-Israeli war on Iran. Officials cited higher energy costs and strained global supply chains as reasons for standing pat. Inflation remains below the midpoint of the bank's target range, but …
Foreign investors pulled $70.3 billion from emerging market assets in March, the largest monthly outflow since the pandemic rout in March 2020, driven principally by a wide equity selloff in Asia and reduced demand for EM debt, according to Institute of International Finance data. The outflows marked a sharp reversal from large inflows earlier in t…
Brazil's central bank has completed a calibrated reduction of the benchmark Selic rate but will retain a restrictive monetary policy stance, Monetary Policy Director Nilton David said. The bank lowered the Selic by 25 basis points to 14.75% at its March 17-18 meeting and officials cite signs of growth above potential and labor market strength as re…
The World Bank projects South Asia's growth will ease to 6.3% in 2026 from 7.0% in 2025, driven by fallout from the Middle East conflict and disruptions in global energy markets. Growth is expected to rebound to 6.9% in 2027, with India remaining the primary growth engine. The bank flagged high uncertainty, energy-related inflationary pressures, po…
New International Monetary Fund research finds that active conflicts inflict substantial and persistent economic losses on countries where fighting occurs, with output declining roughly 7% over five years on average and economic scars lasting more than a decade. The IMF also documents a global surge in military spending, frequent defense build-ups …
Market participants are assembling a fresh playbook for what is being called the new 'Trump trade' after a U.S.-Iran ceasefire announcement and the shock moves that followed. The ceasefire pushed oil sharply lower on the immediate reaction but futures and analysts suggest a higher-for-longer oil environment while currency and government bond market…
Qatar has begun assembling engineers and personnel to restart operations at the Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facility following a recent ceasefire in the Middle East. Limited maintenance activity is underway ahead of a planned recommencement of production; however, the pace of any ramp-up is uncertain and full restoration depends o…
The United States and Iran agreed to a conditional ceasefire late Tuesday, with President Trump pausing planned attacks on Iranian infrastructure for two weeks provided Iran immediately reopens the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement came just under two hours before the president's self-imposed deadline, reversing an earlier, harsher threat, and pro…
Deloitte projects global revenues from women’s elite sports will reach at least $3 billion in 2026, a 25% increase versus last year. Growth has accelerated sharply since 2022, led primarily by basketball and football, with broadcast and matchday revenues accounting for substantial shares of the total.
The average contract rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate U.S. mortgage slipped to 6.51% for the week ending April 3, down 6 basis points from the prior week, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported. Despite the decline, refinance activity fell and purchase applications remain below year-ago levels, while policymakers prepare a major housing announcemen…
Investors sharply boosted expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate reduction by year-end after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week cease-fire. CME Group market-implied probabilities moved markedly higher, while oil, gold and bond markets adjusted to a lower near-term risk of an inflation surge tied to Middle East hostilities. Un…
Ray Dalio said he anticipates constructive engagement when U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet next month, highlighting trade and capital flows as central topics. Dalio urged investors to take encouragement from the prospect of improved dialogue and stressed the broader importance of U.S.-China relations and maritime s…
A temporary ceasefire has eased oil prices and lifted stocks and bonds, but market participants and central bankers warn that the war-driven energy shock has exposed persistent inflationary pressure. With geopolitics now a central risk and policymakers signaling vigilance, pre-war expectations for rate cuts in major economies appear to have been ab…
France unveiled a revised military planning law that allocates 36 billion euros ($39 billion) in extra defense spending through 2030. The framework raises defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by decade-end, increases the number of nuclear warheads while keeping nuclear spending at about 13% of the defense budget, and directs fresh funding to replenish a…
An oil refinery on Iran's Lavan Island was struck by an attack at 10 a.m. local time on Wednesday, occurring only hours after a ceasefire in the conflict was announced. State television reported that firefighters worked to control a blaze at the facility and that no casualties had been reported. Iranian authorities have not identified who carried o…
The Federal Reserve enters the release of its March meeting minutes with policymakers already having acknowledged that the U.S.-Iran war would lift inflation this year. The two-day session, held March 17-18, occurred as oil jumped from about $70 to $100 a barrel and Fed officials revised up 2026 inflation projections. The minutes, due at 2 p.m. EDT…
Major U.S. banks are forecast to report higher quarterly earnings driven by stronger net interest income and elevated investment banking fees, according to analyst estimates. Earnings season begins with Goldman Sachs, followed by reports from JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. Despite solid dealmaking and tr…
Visiting Budapest, U.S. Vice President JD Vance said Wednesday that a negotiated end to the Middle East hostilities is achievable if Iran engages in good faith. Vance said President Trump has tasked him and the negotiating team to pursue an agreement, and described recent steps - including Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz and an understanding by t…
Pope Leo on April 8 greeted the announcement of an immediate two-week ceasefire in the Iran war and urged a return to negotiation to achieve a lasting end to the conflict. Earlier he described a threat attributed to U.S. President Donald Trump against Iran’s population as "truly unacceptable," marking a rare direct rebuke of a world leader from the…
Major international investment banks have revised down earlier forecasts for reductions to China’s benchmark interest rates, now anticipating that official policy rates will remain unchanged through 2026. The shift reflects limited economic disruption from the Iran conflict, signs of an early domestic recovery, and ample liquidity in the banking sy…
U.S. stock futures climbed sharply after Washington and Tehran reached a mediated, temporary ceasefire that includes provisions to allow coordinated tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The deal alleviated immediate fears of a widespread energy supply shock, sending crude prices down from recent peaks. Gold rebounded as the dollar weakened,…
U.S. stock futures surged on Wednesday following news of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, a development that pushed crude oil prices sharply lower and eased some safe-haven flows. The agreement, announced late Tuesday hours before a stated deadline, coincided with broad gains in Asian and European equity indexes and declines in short…
