Economy June 24, 2026 08:37 AM

Mexico's inflation eases to 3.55% in early June, core inflation also softer than expected

Partial-month consumer price data show a fall in headline inflation and a below-forecast rise in the core index for the first half of June

By Ajmal Hussain
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Mexico's annual inflation rate slowed to 3.55% in the first half of June, down from 4.11% in the first half of May and below economists' forecasts. Month-on-month consumer prices fell 0.11% in the period, while the core price index rose 0.19%, slightly under expectations of 0.21%. The data were released by the national statistics agency.

Mexico's inflation eases to 3.55% in early June, core inflation also softer than expected
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Key Points

  • Annual inflation in Mexico slowed to 3.55% in the first half of June, down from 4.11% in the first half of May.
  • Month-on-month consumer prices fell 0.11% in the first half of June, versus economists' expectation of a 0.10% rise.
  • The core price index rose 0.19% in early June, slightly below the expected 0.21%; this index excludes volatile food and energy components.

Mexico's annual inflation rate declined to 3.55% in the first half of June, the national statistics agency reported on Wednesday. The reading was lower than market forecasts and represented a slowdown from the pace recorded in May's first half.

The latest figure compares with 4.11% recorded in the first half of May. Economists surveyed ahead of the release had anticipated a rate of 3.77% for the early June reading.

On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices in Latin America's second-largest economy fell 0.11% in the first half of June. That outcome contrasted with the consensus expectation of a 0.10% increase among economists polled.

Breaking out components of price growth, the core price index - which omits certain volatile items such as food and energy - rose 0.19% in early June. That gain was marginally below the 0.21% rise economists had expected.


Details and context

The agency's release focuses on the first half of June rather than a full-month estimate, and the reported figures show both headline and core measures moving more gently than analysts had forecast. The decline in the month-on-month headline measure and the softer-than-expected core increase together account for the lower annual rate of 3.55%.

Implications for sectors

  • Consumer-facing sectors may see relief from a slower pace of headline inflation, given the 0.11% month-on-month fall in consumer prices during the period.
  • The core index reading, which excludes food and energy, suggests price pressures outside those volatile categories increased at a modest pace, a detail relevant to retailers and service providers.
  • Food and energy remain important reference points because the core measure by definition excludes those categories when assessing underlying price trends.

What to watch next

These statistics cover the first half of June and therefore may not capture price developments over the remainder of the month. Observers and market participants will look to subsequent releases for confirmation of whether the deceleration seen in the partial-month data persists across the full month.

Risks

  • The data cover only the first half of June, so full-month developments could differ and change the inflation trajectory - this affects assessment of the consumer sector and monetary outlook.
  • The divergence between expected and actual month-on-month figures introduces uncertainty for market participants and forecasters relying on consensus projections.
  • A core inflation reading that is below expectations still shows underlying price pressures, leaving ambiguity about persistent inflation trends across services and non-volatile goods.

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