Overview
U.S. equity futures were mostly positive as markets awaited July's consumer price index, a report widely viewed as pivotal to the outlook for central bank policy. Traders have been navigating volatile oil moves tied to developments in the Middle East while digesting a set of U.S. data that included a stronger-than-expected gauge of small business sentiment.
1. Futures and market context
By 03:09 ET (07:09 GMT), the futures market showed modest gains for the major U.S. indexes: the Dow futures were broadly unchanged, S&P 500 futures were up 13 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had climbed 117 points, or 0.4%. The main Wall Street averages had pulled back in the previous session as oil prices swung on competing developments in the Middle East, stoking concern that higher crude could feed into inflation and prompt central-bank action.
Despite those jitters, analysts at Deutsche Bank noted that a handful of recent U.S. economic indicators "generally came in on the positive side," pointing specifically to a small business optimism gauge that exceeded expectations. That mix of data has left investors focused on how incoming inflation information could alter the narrative around monetary policy over coming months.
2. CPI data in focus
All eyes are now on July's consumer price index, the Labor Department measure that markets watch closely for signs of price pressure. Consensus expectations call for the headline CPI to moderate marginally to 3.4% from 3.5% year-on-year. The headline reading incorporates gasoline costs, which have been elevated since the Iran war began in late February and have stoked concerns about energy-driven upward pressure on inflation.
On a core basis - removing the volatile food and energy components - the forecast is for an easing to 2.5% from 2.6%. Analysts at Vital Knowledge emphasized that, even at those levels, inflation would remain well above the Federal Reserve's stated target. That leaves policymakers with a difficult trade-off: tightening policy could tamp down price gains but risk weighing on an economy and a labor market that some see as fragile.
Deutsche Bank strategists also reminded investors that the Fed's preferred inflation gauge is the core personal consumption expenditures price index, which is not due for release for several more weeks. They noted that the CPI report, together with the producer price index due the next day, will provide an initial steer on July price trends and help shape the market narrative in the near term.
3. CoreWeave posts another record quarter as AI demand surges
Cloud-computing company CoreWeave saw its shares jump more than 15% in after-hours trading following the release of quarterly results that showed a fifth consecutive quarter of record revenue. The performance underscored intense demand for the specialized computing capacity required to run generative artificial intelligence systems.
CoreWeave reported total revenue of $2.58 billion for the June quarter, topping analysts' estimates. Its sales backlog - a forward-looking indicator of contracted revenue from recurring customers - rose to $104 billion, roughly double the level of its order book in November. The company also said it had secured $25 billion in net new customer commitments in the current quarter.
Chief executive Michael Intrator described the period as the "strongest bookings quarter" in the firm's history, reflecting robust client appetite for leased AI compute. CoreWeave's business model involves buying advanced AI chips from a key partner and installing them in data centers to provide rented processing capacity to customers building and running large-scale AI workloads.
Yet the company's growth has come with mounting investment. Analysts at Vital Knowledge pointed out that CoreWeave's capital expenditures ran "elevated and ran ahead of expectations." Rapid customer demand has forced the firm to spend heavily to expand capacity and meet commitments. Against that backdrop, CoreWeave's cumulative net losses have grown to $1.64 billion since its public listing in March 2025.
4. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz dips
Shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz declined to eight vessels on Tuesday, a one-week low, according to shipping data cited in coverage of the region. The reduced vessel count highlights ship operators' efforts to avoid the narrow waterway off Iran's southern coast amid continuing hostilities.
The drop in traffic followed separate attacks announced on Tuesday by U.S.-aligned forces and Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. Those developments further dimmed hopes for a quick resolution that would restore normal shipping traffic through the strait, which prior to the start of the Iran war in late February handled roughly a fifth of the world's oil flows.
The latest tally of eight vessels was below the 10-day average of about 12 and marked the lowest number since August 5, underscoring how geopolitical tensions are constraining transit through a strategically crucial maritime corridor.
5. Brent crude fluctuates on mixed signals
Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, were last trading higher by 0.6% at $89.46 a barrel. Throughout the session the contract swung on competing headlines about the possibility of reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Comments from Qatar's Foreign Ministry and Pakistan's Defense Minister briefly fueled optimism that a deal to reopen the strait could be struck, nudging prices lower toward an intraday trough of $86.60 a barrel. The rally returned after reports from Iranian state media suggested Tehran would not clear the waterway until a list of conditions it issued earlier was satisfied. Iran's Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council added that any deal with Oman regarding the waterway would remain separate from decisions about the strait's closure.
Implications for markets and sectors
The confluence of an imminent CPI release, elevated oil-price volatility, and strong demand for AI compute capacity is creating cross-currents across equity, energy, and technology markets. Inflation data will be watched for clues about the Fed's next actions; oil-market shock risks could add upward pressure to consumer prices; and the cloud-computing sector is demonstrating that AI workloads are driving sizable near-term revenue gains, even as providers invest heavily to keep pace with demand.
Bottom line - July's CPI will likely set the tone for market expectations about the path of monetary policy in the weeks ahead. Meanwhile, CoreWeave's results illustrate the intensity of current AI-related demand and the capital outlays required to support rapid scale, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to be a source of near-term fragility for global energy flows.