Political uncertainty in France is likely to grow as the country moves toward the 2027 presidential election after the Paris Court of Appeal reduced a ban that had prevented Marine Le Pen from holding public office, allowing her to enter the race, UBS said in a research note.
The first round of voting is scheduled for April 18, 2027, with a decisive runoff on May 2. Incumbent President Emmanuel Macron is ineligible to run again after completing two consecutive five-year terms.
Le Pen has announced her candidacy following the court decision that lifted her ban on public office despite a one-year electronic monitoring sentence she received. She said she will appeal the appellate ruling. Jordan Bardella is expected to serve as the party’s candidate for prime minister if the campaign proceeds as currently anticipated.
UBS noted that current opinion polls place Le Pen and Bardella in leading positions for the first round, although the bank cautioned that a fragmented centrist field could alter the dynamics before the final list of candidates is set in March 2027.
According to UBS, fiscal policy is likely to dominate the campaign agenda as France continues to carry one of the largest budget deficits in the eurozone. The bank highlighted that investors will be watching candidates’ stances on pension reform closely, particularly after President Macron’s plan to raise the retirement age gradually from 62 to 64 was suspended until 2028 during budget negotiations.
UBS also drew attention to the parliamentary elections expected in June 2027, noting that they could be as consequential as the presidential vote. The bank emphasized that a president without a supportive parliamentary majority may face marked limitations in pursuing domestic policy measures.
Looking to the near term, UBS flagged the 2027 budget debate, which begins in October, as a key event on the calendar. Lawmakers could either reach a compromise on the budget before the election or postpone approval until after the vote, a path that could extend provisional government financing into the following year.
Context and investor considerations
With the legal pathway cleared for Le Pen’s participation and a potential Bardella role in the executive lineup, the electoral timetable now sets a sequence of milestones that market participants and policymakers will follow closely: the confirmation of final candidates in March 2027, the first-round ballot on April 18, the May 2 runoff, and the parliamentary vote in June. UBS places particular emphasis on fiscal policy choices and pension reform as central themes that will drive investor attention through the campaign and into the budgetary debates beginning in October.
These elements together create a policy environment in which short- and medium-term decisions on the budget and reform measures will be closely watched for their implications on governance and fiscal stability.