Barclays said on Monday it still expects the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to initiate a rate increase in June, but only if friction in the Middle East declines. In a client note, the investment bank described the central bank's most recent policy choice as laying the foundation for earlier-than-anticipated tightening.
The bank argued that a reduction in geopolitical stress and a tightening of uncertainty around domestic activity would make the BoJ more alert to upside inflation risks. Barclays highlighted that Japanese firms have, in recent years, become more willing to transfer rising input costs onto final prices, a dynamic the bank believes strengthens the inflationary pass-through channel.
Barclays noted the BoJ appears increasingly worried that the mechanism by which higher oil prices translate into consumer inflation is more potent now than it was previously. That concern, the bank said, reinforces the case for the BoJ to move sooner if external disruptions abate.
Assuming a June increase, Barclays expects the central bank to accept shorter intervals between subsequent hikes. The firm pencilled in further moves in October and in April 2027. Barclays left its forecast for the terminal rate unchanged at 1.5%.
On the political and international front, Barclays flagged that measures to fight inflation - including implications from a weaker yen - are an urgent priority for Prime Minister Takaichi. The note also referenced comments of support for rate rises from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent.
For market watchers, Barclays listed several near-term items to monitor: the Summary of Opinions from the BoJ's April meeting due May 12, a speech by Policy Board Member Masu on May 14, and a public appearance by Deputy Governor Himino on May 16. The bank framed these events as focal points for guidance on the timing and pace of any tightening.
Barclays' outlook ties the timing of BoJ tightening tightly to both geopolitical developments and evolving domestic price dynamics, while keeping its end-point rate expectation at 1.5%.