Goldman Sachs projects London Metal Exchange copper prices will climb to $15,600 per ton by December 2027, which the bank says represents roughly a 13% increase from current spot prices.
The bank pointed out that copper traded just under $10,000 per ton last year, underscoring the magnitude of the projected rise.
According to Goldman, the forecast is driven by a constellation of demand-side factors. Key contributors include the broad shift toward electrification, government initiatives focused on energy security, and what the bank characterizes as quasi-strategic stockpiling. In addition, expanding requirements from data centers and artificial intelligence infrastructure are cited as important sources of incremental copper demand.
On the supply side, Goldman notes that mine output remains constrained. The bank frames this as a structural limit that, combined with mounting demand, supports its view for higher prices over the forecast horizon.
Goldman also highlights recent policy moves in two major economies. Measures from the United States and China aimed at strengthening domestic supply chains have increased competition between the two countries for refined copper. The bank states this competition has pushed copper inventories outside the US down to seasonal lows and introduced additional price pressure that sits on top of existing structural supply constraints.
Implications and context
The bank’s outlook ties together demand growth from technology and electrification with constrained primary supply and tighter refined copper stocks. Those dynamics are presented as mutually reinforcing factors that support the projected price path to December 2027.
Key points
- Goldman Sachs forecasts LME copper at $15,600 per ton by December 2027 - a 13% rise from current spot prices.
- Demand drivers identified include electrification, energy security initiatives, quasi-strategic stockpiling, data centers and AI infrastructure.
- Mine supply is described as constrained, while US and China policies to secure domestic supply chains have intensified competition for refined copper and reduced stocks outside the US to seasonal lows.
Risks and uncertainties
- Ongoing constraints in mine supply could persist and weigh on availability for markets and downstream industries.
- Heightened competition between the United States and China for refined copper has driven inventories outside the US to seasonal lows, creating potential for further price volatility.
- The interaction between increased demand from technology and energy sectors and already tight refined stocks may amplify price sensitivity to policy or supply disruptions.
This analysis is based on the forecast and observations provided by Goldman Sachs regarding LME copper pricing, supply conditions and demand drivers through December 2027.