Goldman Sachs has compiled a list of five Buy-rated oil and energy names it believes are well positioned as the industry pivots into what its analysts characterize as a new capital spending cycle. The firm frames the cycle around the twin pressures of replacing depleting reserves and meeting growing global fuel demand.
At the center of Goldman’s recent research note are two structural themes: upside risk to long-dated oil prices and sustained tightness in refining markets, especially for diesel and jet fuel. The analysts cite geopolitical supply risks, including disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, together with generally elevated commodity prices, as reinforcing the sector outlook.
Goldman’s models place Brent futures for the 2028-2030 period in the $70 to $75 per barrel range in the market today, which the bank notes is below its internal estimate of $75 to $80 per barrel. The research further stresses the importance of a restart in U.S. shale growth to bridge anticipated deficits in 2026.
Five companies highlighted
Goldman identifies five specific companies it favors in the current cycle and outlines the factors supporting each name:
- Halliburton - Goldman points to constructive remarks from Halliburton’s first-quarter 2026 call about its North America business, where the firm expects pricing improvements and incremental growth opportunities. Management reported higher activity among smaller customers and flagged the possibility that larger customers could add activity later in the year should elevated commodity prices persist. Goldman also referenced a meaningful contract award in Argentina as evidence of structural growth drivers, and expects the company to keep a substantial share repurchase program in place through the remainder of the year. Halliburton reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter 2026 results and disclosed an agreement with Greenland Energy for integrated consulting and logistical services. Following the company’s results, some brokers, including Griffin Securities and Stifel, raised price targets on the stock.
- Cenovus - Goldman says the market is rewarding producers with compelling growth programs and longer reserve lives. Cenovus is highlighted for its prospective production growth by 2030 from the Christina Lake and West White Rose projects. The bank views Canada as an attractive region for inventory depth, particularly given demand for medium and heavy crude grades used to make jet fuel and diesel. Cenovus reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings and revenue that beat analyst expectations, and S&P Global Ratings revised the company’s outlook to stable from negative, citing progress on debt reduction.
- ConocoPhillips - Goldman emphasizes free cash flow upside it sees from Alaska and liquefied natural gas projects, identifying Willow and Qatar projects as key contributors to material growth by 2030. The research note observes that, over the past year, companies maintaining higher reinvestment have outperformed lower capital expenditure peers by roughly 20 percentage points. Goldman added ConocoPhillips to its U.S. conviction list, and other broker activity included price target increases from Raymond James and Piper Sandler, while Truist Securities initiated coverage with a Hold rating.
- Valero - The bank highlights structural tightness across refining markets and models an average free cash flow yield for Valero of about 10 percent for 2026 through 2028. Goldman points to outages in the Middle East that it says run roughly 1.7 million barrels per day above seasonal norms, and it also notes additional refinery downtime in China, Japan, Southeast Asia, and Russia. Valero’s operational indicators for the first half of 2026 versus the first half of 2025 show notable increases on key U.S. coasts, including a 95 percent rise on the Gulf Coast and a 66 percent gain on the West Coast. Analyst reaction to Valero has been mixed: Wolfe Research downgraded the company’s rating while other firms such as Piper Sandler and BMO Capital raised price targets. UBS reiterated a Buy stance, specifically pointing to tight diesel markets.
- Diamondback - Goldman views Diamondback as favorably positioned among Permian shale producers because of its drilled-but-uncompleted well inventory. That position, the bank argues, makes Diamondback likely to be a first mover in boosting Permian oil volumes should prices rise. Management plans to increase frac activity to roughly five crews from 4.5 crews. Diamondback disclosed pre-hedge oil prices for the first quarter of 2026 that were higher than forecast and drew positive analyst updates, including price target increases from Raymond James and UBS. The company also announced the pricing of a tender offer for outstanding senior notes.
What Goldman’s emphasis implies for markets
Goldman’s research threads together upstream reinvestment, refinery capacity and geopolitical supply risk as interlocking drivers. The bank’s valuation of long-dated Brent above current market levels underpins its preference for names linked to capital projects and refining exposure. At the same time, the firm signals that a meaningful portion of the sector’s ability to meet future demand rests on resumption of U.S. shale activity to offset projected shortfalls.
Investors tracking producer cash flows, refinery throughput and the pace of shale reactivation are likely to find the bank’s company-level recommendations informative for positioning across the oil supply chain.