The withdrawal of Eric Swalwell from the California gubernatorial contest and his resignation from the U.S. House of Representatives has reshaped a wide-open June primary race and intensified scrutiny of who will inherit his supporters and endorsements.
Swalwell, 45, stepped away from both the campaign and Congress after reporting by the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN that a former staffer accused him of sexual assault and that three other women had come forward with allegations of sexual impropriety. A fifth woman later accused him of sexual assault. Swalwell has denied the allegations.
His departure removes a prominent Democrat from a crowded field of 61 candidates, which includes 24 Democrats and 12 Republicans. Ahead of the June 2 primary, Swalwell had been leading or polling near the top among Democratic contenders and was among the five candidates to meet the polling threshold to qualify for the first televised debate scheduled next Wednesday.
California conducts a so-called jungle primary in which the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to the November runoff. Registered Democrats in the state outnumber Republicans by nearly 2 to 1, yet recent polls showed two Republican candidates - former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco - leading the overall field. The presence of numerous high-profile Democrats has fragmented support within their own party.
"This horrible scandal may have the effect of solving the problems that the Democratic Party leaders couldn’t solve for themselves by narrowing the field, concentrating support on just a few candidates and thus increasing the chances that one Democrat makes it through to November," said Thad Kousser, a political science professor at the University of California San Diego.
Analysts identify two Democrats who appear best positioned to pick up portions of Swalwell’s base: Tom Steyer and Katie Porter. Steyer, a hedge fund billionaire, has already invested $100 million of his own money into his gubernatorial campaign. Porter, a former U.S. representative, built a national profile through pointed questioning in congressional hearings and became known for using a white board to demonstrate how economic strains affect average Americans.
Observers also say Swalwell’s exit could raise the visibility of minority candidates in the race, including Xavier Becerra, the former state attorney general and cabinet secretary; former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa; and former State Controller Betty Yee. Those possibilities were discussed by five political analysts who characterized it as a plausible but untested hypothesis that Porter, as a woman, might gain voters from Swalwell’s departure.
A previous debate scheduled for March 25 was canceled after controversy over racial representation: the six candidates who had qualified for that event - Hilton, Bianco, Steyer, Porter, Swalwell and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan - were all white. Organizers have not yet said whether Swalwell will be replaced on the debate stage next week.
California is a state where roughly 30% of eligible voters are Latino, yet all of the state’s governors to date have been white men. That demographic context has added salience to the debate over representation in the current campaign, and it has contributed to protest and debate over event lineups and candidate visibility.
Christy Smith, executive director of the nonprofit Emerge California, said the scandal is prompting deeper engagement among Democratic voters. "On the Democratic side, it is really causing voters to take a harder look and engage now and really be thoughtful about this process, which hopefully is going to lead to greater participation and more voter turnout," Smith said. She added that many voters feel betrayed by a system that she and others view as failing to properly vet candidates’ character.
Smith also commented on survivor support in public life: "We still do not have a system that supports survivors, and what’s happening with the women who are victims of Epstein and others is just the perfect example," she said.
With Swalwell out of the running, remaining candidates and campaigns are expected to pursue his financial backers and to court the endorsement of influential labor groups that had supported him. Two of the state’s largest labor organizations - the Service Employees International Union and the California Teachers Association - had backed Swalwell and have not announced endorsements for other candidates.
As the June 2 primary approaches, the narrowing of the Democratic side may improve the party’s prospects of securing a slot in the November runoff, or at minimum making a clearer case to voters in a congested field. At the same time, the current polling advantage for two Republicans in the overall field keeps the outcome uncertain.
Incumbent Governor Gavin Newsom is term-limited from running again for governor and is widely viewed as pursuing a 2028 presidential bid. That context leaves open further strategic calculations among Democratic donors, labor groups and candidates as they reallocate resources and endorsements in the closing weeks before the primary.
Summary: The withdrawal of Eric Swalwell after multiple allegations has narrowed the California gubernatorial primary, concentrating attention on a smaller group of Democratic contenders, possible beneficiaries Tom Steyer and Katie Porter, and the still-uncommitted backing of major labor unions. Debate lineups, voter engagement and the potential for minority candidates to gain traction are among the immediate consequences as the June 2 jungle primary approaches.