New option-market pricing from Goldman Sachs shows tactical positions in the U.S. dollar have largely returned to neutral territory in recent sessions. The bank's skew-based positioning gauge points to a notable trimming of dollar-directed bets, reversing earlier positioning trends tied to market moves.
Positioning and spot moves
The reduction in option-implied dollar exposure corresponds with the trade-weighted dollar's near-complete round-trip move in spot terms since the onset of the Middle East conflict. Across G10 dollar pairs, positioning has gravitated toward more neutral levels, according to Goldman Sachs' analysis.
While most pairs sit close to neutral, the data show some remaining net short positions concentrated in Scandinavian currencies. Outside of those pockets, directional positioning across the other pairs registers at no more than 0.3 standard deviations, illustrating modest residual biases rather than large directional tilts.
Volatility and option-market dynamics
Alongside the unwind in option-based positioning, there has been a broad compression in at-the-money volatility. Several currencies, notably the Japanese yen and the British pound, have seen volatility repriced to levels lower than those observed on Feb. 27. The option market pricing therefore reflects both the large shifts in dollar positioning that occurred during 2026 and the more recent neutralization of tactical exposure.
Goldman Sachs' data underscore that, despite the overall move toward neutral tactical positioning, differentiation remains across dollar pairs. That differentiation is tied to the "terms of trade" dimension of the shock, meaning that the specific economic impacts across currency corridors continue to influence relative positioning.
Implications
The snapshot from option markets documents sizeable positioning changes over the year and highlights how both spot movements and option-implied volatility have adjusted in response. The current pattern is one of generally reduced directional dollar bets, compressed at-the-money volatility for multiple majors, and localized residual shorts in some Scandinavian currencies.