European industrial production increased by 0.4% month-on-month in February for both the EU21 and EU27, according to Eurostat data examined by Stifel. The result exceeded the consensus forecast of 0.3% growth.
A sectoral breakdown within the EU21 shows a mixed picture:
- Intermediate goods rose 0.5%.
- Capital goods increased by 1.0%.
- Non-durable consumer goods climbed 2.6%.
- Energy production fell 2.1%.
- Durable consumer goods declined 1.3%.
Among major European economies, sequential figures were uneven. Germany recorded a 0.1% decline in industrial production, France fell 0.8%, and Spain was unchanged from the prior month. Of the 30 countries reporting data, 12 posted month-on-month increases, 17 showed decreases, and one reported no change.
On an annual basis, industrial production was lower across the broader region. The EU21 saw a 0.7% year-over-year decrease, while the EU27 recorded a 0.1% decline. Looking at country-level annual performance, 16 nations reported increases, 13 reported decreases, and one was unchanged.
Leading indicators showed some improvement in underlying activity. The Eurozone purchasing managers index expanded in March, rising 0.8 points from February to 51.6, a level described as a 45-month high.
Stifel framed the near-term outlook for industrial production as positive but choppy through 2026. The firm highlighted uncertainty stemming from U.S. policy as a factor that could influence global industrial economies and companies' capital investment plans. At the same time, Stifel said the European industrial economy has likely reached a bottom and that policy pressure is expected to support growth in European industrial and defense capacity.
In sum, the latest Eurostat readings point to modest sequential gains in February, uneven country and sector performance, and a forward view from Stifel that balances a likely recovery with potential volatility tied to external policy developments and investment decisions.
Impacted sectors: Manufacturing, capital goods, consumer goods, energy, and defense-related industrial capacity.