Commodities April 22, 2026 10:10 PM

USDA to Expand Farmer Surveys After Drop in Planting Report Responses

Agency seeks larger sample sizes and clearer uncertainty explanations following record low response rate for March planting intentions report

By Derek Hwang
USDA to Expand Farmer Surveys After Drop in Planting Report Responses

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's statistical arm plans to survey more farmers for key acreage reports after a marked decline in response rates for its March 31 planting intentions report. Pending Office of Management and Budget approval, the agency aims to boost the June 30 sample by about 35% and increase later survey samples by 10%, while adding clearer plain-language guidance on uncertainty and launching an annual forecast-versus-finals review.

Key Points

  • USDA will increase the number of farmers surveyed for key acreage reports after a decline in the March 31 planting intentions report response rate; sectors affected include agriculture and commodities markets.
  • Pending OMB approval, the June 30 acreage report sample would rise by about 35%, with roughly 10% increases planned for September, December and March reports; this affects market participants relying on crop estimates.
  • USDA will add plain-language explanations of statistical uncertainty and plans an annual report comparing forecasts with final crop totals, which could start in the autumn.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will widen the pool of farmers it contacts for several core crop surveys after a sharp fall in responses to its most recent planting intentions report, officials from the agency's statistical arm said at a public data users' meeting on Wednesday.

The move follows criticism of the USDA's data after the agency raised its corn acreage estimates for the 2025 crop by unprecedented amounts in January. Agency officials cited a reduced response rate for the March 31 planting intentions report as a driver for planned changes.

According to the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service, the response rate for the March 31 survey was 37.6% - down from 44.3% a year earlier and the lowest on record for that particular survey. Agency leaders said improving response rates and report precision are priorities.

Pending approval from the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the USDA intends to increase the number of farmers surveyed for its June 30 acreage report by roughly 35%. The agency also plans to raise sample sizes by about 10% for the subsequent acreage reports issued in September, December and the following March.

Joseph Parsons, administrator of the USDA's statistics service, told the meeting: "This should substantially boost our usable reports and increase the precision for major field crop estimates." He also said the agency will add more plain-language information to its reports to clarify the level of uncertainty associated with key statistics.

In addition to sample increases and clearer explanations, USDA officials described plans for a new annual review that would compare the agency's forecasts for major crops with final totals compiled after the end of the marketing year. Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden told the meeting the report could begin as early as this autumn.

The agency solicited public feedback on its statistical programs through a Request for Information survey conducted between February 23 and April 9. Parsons and other officials said they are still examining responses from that process as they refine the proposed changes.


The proposed adjustments are presented as efforts to strengthen the usability and transparency of USDA acreage statistics. Officials emphasized both expanding the survey base and improving how uncertainty is communicated to data users.

Risks

  • Lower survey response rates have already reduced the reliability of a key planting intentions report, introducing uncertainty for agricultural supply estimates and commodity markets.
  • Pending approval from the Office of Management and Budget means the planned sample increases are not yet guaranteed, leaving continued risk to the precision of future acreage estimates.
  • The agency is still studying public feedback from its Request for Information (Feb 23 - Apr 9), so proposed changes could be adjusted or delayed, maintaining uncertainty for users of USDA data.

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