Investors executed a concentrated set of Brent crude futures sales worth about $760 million roughly 20 minutes before a public statement from Iran’s foreign minister that the Strait of Hormuz was open, according to transaction timing and price data. Between 12:24 GMT and 12:25 GMT, market participants sold a combined 7,990 lots of Brent futures, a block of trades that equated to the roughly three quarters of a billion dollar exposure at the prices prevailing at the time.
At 12:45 GMT the foreign minister posted on X that passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz was declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, in line with the ceasefire in Lebanon. That message presaged a sharp downward move in crude prices: the market fell as much as 11% on the day in the minutes that followed the announcement.
Large, precisely timed trades in oil have cropped up repeatedly during the recent conflict period and drawn attention from U.S. lawmakers and legal experts. Observers have raised concerns that decisions tied to war and diplomacy may provide some market participants with an informational advantage in volatile and opaque derivatives markets, where the timing and scale of orders can materially affect prices.
Earlier examples cited in transaction reviews include a cluster of trades on April 7 valued at about $950 million that took place hours before the U.S. and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire, and a set of sales on March 23 worth $500 million executed about 15 minutes before an announcement by the U.S. President that attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure would be delayed. On both occasions the crude price moved sharply downward following the public statements.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating a series of oil futures trades that include the March 23 and April 7 transactions, according to a person familiar with the inquiry. Those earlier trades were placed shortly before major policy shifts by the U.S. President related to the conflict in Iran.
The cluster of sales between 12:24 GMT and 12:25 GMT adds to a pattern of sizable pre-announcement positions in the oil futures market. Market participants and regulators are now focusing on whether the timing of such orders reflects ordinary trading strategies or whether they indicate information asymmetries that merit closer oversight.
Context limitations: The details presented here are limited to transaction sizes, timings, the content and timing of the foreign minister’s post on X, subsequent price moves, past reported trades on March 23 and April 7, and the existence of a CFTC investigation as described by a person familiar with the matter. No additional facts beyond those described are asserted.