Summary: Anonymous market activity worth $430 million in selling hit the oil market in the 15 minutes before U.S. President Donald Trump said he would extend a ceasefire with Iran, marking the third occurrence this month and the fourth overall when large directional bets were placed shortly before major announcements tied to the Iran war.
Between 19:54 and 19:56 GMT on Tuesday, traders placed 4,260 lots of sell orders in the Brent futures market, with a notional value of about $430 million calculated at the prevailing Brent price, according to LSEG data. President Trump announced he would extend the ceasefire indefinitely at 20:10 GMT.
The timing is notable because the Brent market settles at 18:30 GMT. The block of trades therefore took place in post-settlement hours, a period when trading volumes are typically very thin.
Those transactions had limited immediate effect on quoted values. Brent futures edged down to $100.66 a barrel from $100.91 just before the trades took place. In the minute following the presidential announcement, Brent fell to a low of $96.83. By 12:00 GMT on Wednesday, Brent was trading at $99.20 a barrel.
This episode follows several similar episodes in recent weeks. On March 23, some 15 minutes before an announcement by President Trump that he would delay threatened attacks on Iranian power infrastructure, anonymous traders placed a single $500 million bet on a fall in the oil price. Earlier in April, roughly $950 million of wagers were executed just hours before Mr. Trump announced a two-week ceasefire.
Another episode on April 17 saw about $760 million of selling hit markets roughly 20 minutes before the Iranian foreign minister posted on social media that the Strait of Hormuz would be open to commercial shipping. Across April, bets timed around these events have summed to about $2.1 billion, and the March combined wager cited above was worth $500 million.
The repeated pattern of sizeable sales placed shortly before significant policy shifts or public statements related to the Iran conflict has drawn regulatory attention. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating a series of oil futures trades, including those on March 23 and April 7, that were placed shortly before major policy shifts by President Trump, a person familiar with the matter said on April 15.
Observers note the trades occurred when liquidity is often reduced and market impact can be atypical; however, in this instance the blocks did not produce a sustained adverse move before the announcement and prices reacted further after the news.
This report lays out the sequence of large, well-timed directional bets surrounding recent Iran-related announcements and reports on their immediate market effects and the ongoing regulatory review.