A new AtlasIntel/Bloomberg opinion poll published on Wednesday indicates that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva would outperform opposition Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a hypothetical second-round vote in October's presidential contest.
The survey places Lula at 48.8% against Flavio Bolsonaro's 42.3% in a head-to-head run-off scenario. The same poll notes that in an earlier April survey the two leading candidates were tied at 48%.
The poll also reported projected outcomes in a broader first-round configuration. In that scenario the results were:
- Lula: 46.3%
- Flavio Bolsonaro: 36.6%
- Renan Santos: 7.8%
- Ronaldo Caiado: 2.9%
- Romeu Zema: 2.0%
Methodological details provided with the poll indicate it interviewed 4,999 people between June 26 and June 30. The reported margin of error is one percentage point in either direction.
These figures show a shift from the April tie reported between the two primary contenders, with the June survey placing Lula ahead in both a direct second-round match-up and a multi-candidate first-round scenario. The poll documentation specifies the sample size and data collection window but does not provide further demographic breakdowns or turnout assumptions within the published summary.
Observers should note the explicit statistical limits attached to the findings: the margin of error and the finite time window during which responses were gathered. The published numbers are point estimates from the June 26-30 fieldwork and are presented without additional interpretation in the survey release.
Because the published poll material focuses solely on the vote percentages and the sampling parameters, it does not address downstream effects outside the immediate numerical results.