June 23 - Meta's chief executive recently asked a compact team within the company to design a smartphone application akin to established prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, according to people familiar with the effort. The project is being developed under the internal name "Arena" and is intended to operate independently of Meta's existing social properties like Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger.
Sources familiar with the initiative say the early build of the app would likely use a points-based system with mechanics similar to video games, rather than permit users to place monetary wagers. Those sources also indicated that Meta has not closed the door on allowing real-money bets in the future, but no decision has been announced.
The company did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The report could not be independently verified.
Prediction markets have gained traction in recent political cycles, including a notable surge in popularity during the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The market type has been adopted by a broader set of market participants and platforms, and some mainstream brokerage and trading services have introduced event-based contracts to their product suites - examples cited include Robinhood and Interactive Brokers.
The internal project name and the decision to build the app as a distinct product from Meta's social-networking apps suggest the company is aiming to create a separate user experience and product governance model. The use of a points system at launch implies a non-monetized entry point, while the explicit caveat that real-money wagering has not been ruled out leaves the app's long-term monetization and regulatory posture open.
For now, details on timing, commercial terms, user protections, and how the service would be governed within Meta's broader product portfolio have not been disclosed by the company or confirmed by independent reporting.
Contextual note: The initiative reflects an internal push to explore event-based trading mechanisms in a format that may blend elements of gaming and financial event prediction, while keeping initial exposure to cash wagering limited.