Pennon Group is scheduled to publish its results for the fiscal year 2025/26 on Wednesday, June 10. Barclays analysts note this will be the first results presentation under chief executive Keith Haslett.
Barclays retains an overweight recommendation on the UK water utility and has developed estimates that exceed Bloomberg consensus figures. The bank forecasts underlying group EBITDA of 561 million, compared with a Bloomberg consensus of 532 million. Barclays also models underlying group operating profit at 361 million versus a consensus of 333 million.
The bank highlights a potential tailwind to return on regulated equity, driven by financing advantages linked to inflation. Barclays points to recent financing outperformance at peers as precedent, noting Severn Trent delivered financing outperformance of 4.8% in fiscal 2025/26 while United Utilities recorded 3.1%. Based on these observations, Barclays anticipates a similar inflation-related benefit could support an uplift in Pennon 's return on regulated equity, and suggests the company's existing real RORE guidance of 7% for the AMP8 period may be adjusted.
Investors will also be watching for any re-opener submission from Pennon and the size of any proposed adjustment. United Utilities lodged a 2.5 billion re-opener and Severn Trent filed an approximately 600 million re-opener. United Utilities later followed with an 800 million equity raise.
Pennon delayed the publication of its results from June 2 to June 10 in light of the Brixham court case. The case resulted in a 1.9 million fine relating to a Cryptosporidium outbreak. An Environment Agency hearing that had been set for June 4 has been pushed back to July 30.
The company has previously adjusted its payout policy in response to environmental penalties. In 2024 Pennon trimmed its final dividend by 2.4 million after it received a 2.2 million environmental fine.
On valuation, Barclays calculates Pennon is trading at a 1.7% premium to the March 2027 regulatory asset base. By contrast, it puts Severn Trent at a 15.9% premium and United Utilities at 13.3%.
Investors and market participants will use Pennon 's upcoming results to assess first-year delivery under the AMP8 regulatory period, clarity on any re-opener, and the company's approach to capital and funding should a material re-opener be submitted.