Traders and strategists are preparing for a full day of U.S. economic data on Thursday, July 2, 2026, when several high-profile labor-market reports arrive alongside manufacturing, energy and consumer indicators. Front and center is the monthly nonfarm payrolls report, issued at 7:30 AM ET, with a constellation of related statistics released at the same time.
Key labor-market releases - 7:30 AM ET
- Nonfarm Payrolls (Forecast: 114K; Previous: 172K) - This measure captures the month-over-month change in the number of people employed across the economy excluding the farming sector and is widely followed as a primary gauge of consumer spending potential.
- Initial Jobless Claims (Forecast: 219K; Previous: 215K) - The weekly count of people filing for unemployment insurance for the first time, providing the earliest high-frequency snapshot of labor-market stress.
- Average Hourly Earnings (Month-over-month Forecast: 0.3%; Previous: 0.3%) - The monthly change in the price of labor paid by employers, excluding agricultural workers, used as a core flow measure of wage pressures and an input to inflation analysis.
- Unemployment Rate (Forecast: 4.3%; Previous: 4.3%) - The share of the labor force that is without work and actively looking for a job during the reported month.
Several companion labor statistics also publish at 7:30 AM ET and add nuance to the headline payrolls number:
- Continuing Jobless Claims (Previous: 1,821K) - The stock of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits, reflecting ongoing labor-market slack among benefit recipients.
- Participation Rate (Previous: 61.8%) - The share of the working-age population either employed or actively seeking employment, an important gauge of labor supply.
- Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Forecast: 3.5%; Previous: 3.4%) - The year-over-year pace of wage growth across the economy.
- Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Forecast: 115K; Previous: 120K) - Employment change for paid workers excluding government, nonprofit and farm sectors.
- Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. (Previous: 224.25K) - A smoothed indicator that reduces weekly volatility in initial claims.
- Manufacturing Payrolls (Forecast: 3K; Previous: 7K) - Employment changes specific to the manufacturing sector, excluding proprietors and the self-employed.
- U6 Unemployment Rate (Previous: 8.1%) - The broader measure of underemployment, including marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons.
- Government Payrolls (Previous: 52.0K) - Change in the number of government employees on payrolls during the month.
- Average Weekly Hours (Forecast: 34.3; Previous: 34.3) - The average hours worked by nonfarm payroll employees.
Additional economic releases through the day
- 9:00 AM ET - Factory Orders (Forecast: -1.7%; Previous: 4.8%) - Measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers, including durable goods revisions.
- 9:00 AM ET - Durables Excluding Transport (Previous: 1.3%); Durables Excluding Defense (Previous: -4.6%); Factory Orders ex Transportation (Previous: 1.3%) - Variants of durable goods and factory orders data that strip out volatile components to highlight underlying manufacturing demand.
- 9:30 AM ET - Natural Gas Storage (Forecast: 81B; Previous: 76B) - Weekly change in underground natural gas inventories.
- 10:30 AM ET - 8-Week Bill Auction (Previous: 3.660%) and 4-Week Bill Auction (Previous: 3.610%) - Short-term Treasury bill auction results that provide market pricing for liquidity and funding conditions.
- 12:00 PM ET - Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count (Previous: 440) and Baker Hughes Total U.S. Rig Count (Previous: 573) - Weekly tallies of active drilling rigs that act as a business barometer for the oil drilling industry and a leading indicator of demand for oil products.
- 1:00 PM ET - Total Vehicle Sales (Previous: 16.10M) - The annualized pace of new vehicle sales domestically, often used as a proxy for consumer spending and confidence in big-ticket purchases.
- 3:30 PM ET - Federal Reserve Balance Sheet (Previous: 6,736B) and Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks (Previous: 2.954T) - Weekly disclosures on the Fed's assets and liabilities and depository institutions' account balances at regional Federal Reserve Banks.
What markets will watch
Market participants will closely parse the payrolls number, jobless claims and earnings data for signs of labor-market resilience or cooling, since these metrics feed into inflation-readings and expectations for monetary policy. The nonfarm payrolls figure is commonly interpreted as a barometer of consumer spending potential, while average hourly earnings inform wage-driven inflationary pressures. Initial jobless claims, as the earliest weekly labor-market signal, will also be monitored for any abrupt moves.
Separately, the manufacturing and sector-specific releases - from factory orders to durable-goods components, natural gas storage and rig counts - add texture to the growth outlook across industry segments such as manufacturing, energy and autos. Treasury bill auction results and the Fed's weekly balance-sheet updates will offer additional context for funding, liquidity and short-term rate dynamics.
Summary of the schedule
- 7:30 AM ET - Major labor metrics including nonfarm payrolls, initial jobless claims, average hourly earnings and unemployment rate.
- 9:00 AM ET - Factory orders and durable-goods variants.
- 9:30 AM ET - Natural gas storage update.
- 10:30 AM ET - Short-term Treasury bill auctions for 4- and 8-week maturities.
- 12:00 PM ET - Baker Hughes rig counts.
- 1:00 PM ET - Total vehicle sales.
- 3:30 PM ET - Federal Reserve balance-sheet and reserve balances update.
Where to follow updates
Traders and analysts typically monitor these data releases as they are published to assess implications for growth, inflation and monetary policy expectations. The calendar of releases provides the timeline and key figures to watch throughout the trading day.