Stock Markets July 1, 2026 03:58 PM

Moody's Moves Advance Auto Parts Outlook to Stable, Upholds Ba3 Ratings

Liquidity view upgraded to SGL-1 as cash balances and returning free cash flow bolster the credit profile

By Nina Shah
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Moody's has revised its outlook on Advance Auto Parts to stable from negative while affirming the company's Ba3 corporate family and Ba3-PD probability of default ratings. The ratings agency also upgraded the firm's speculative grade liquidity rating to SGL-1 from SGL-2, citing strong cash balances, a return to positive free cash flow, and available capacity under a $1 billion asset-based revolver. Moody's expects further improvement in credit metrics over the coming year and projects specific leverage and interest-coverage ratios for 2027.

Moody's Moves Advance Auto Parts Outlook to Stable, Upholds Ba3 Ratings
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Key Points

  • Moody's changed Advance Auto Parts' outlook to stable from negative and affirmed Ba3 and Ba3-PD ratings while upgrading its speculative grade liquidity rating to SGL-1.
  • The ratings firm pointed to $2.9 billion in cash at the end of Q1 2026, a return to positive free cash flow this year, and availability under a $1 billion asset-based revolver as drivers of improved liquidity.
  • Projected improvements include debt/EBITDA of 4.6x and EBITA/interest of 2.4x in 2027; impacts are most relevant to the auto parts retail and corporate credit sectors.

Moody's Ratings adjusted its assessment of Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP) by moving the company's outlook to stable from negative and reaffirming several debt and issuer ratings. The corporate family rating and the probability of default rating remain at Ba3 and Ba3-PD respectively, and the ratings agency also affirmed the Ba3 rating on the company's backed senior unsecured notes and senior unsecured notes. Separately, Moody's upgraded Advance Auto Parts' speculative grade liquidity rating to SGL-1 from SGL-2.

The change to a stable outlook reflects Moody's view that the company's restructuring work is largely finished, with only limited restructuring charges anticipated in 2026. Moody's noted expectations that Advance Auto Parts will generate positive free cash flow in the current year and that key credit metrics will continue to improve over the next 12 months.

Liquidity and cash position

Moody's cited very good liquidity as the basis for the SGL-1 rating. The agency highlighted the company's high cash balances, the return to positive free cash flow, and availability under its $1 billion asset based revolving credit facility as supporting factors. At the end of the first quarter of 2026, Advance Auto Parts reported $2.9 billion in cash on its balance sheet.

Financial policy and projected metrics

Advance Auto Parts' stated financial policy, as referenced by Moody's, includes maintaining a significantly reduced dividend, a halt to share repurchases, and keeping elevated cash on the balance sheet. Moody's expects that leverage and coverage metrics will improve, forecasting debt/EBITDA of 4.6x and EBITA/interest of 2.4x in 2027.

Rating rationale and sector context

Moody's said the Ba3 corporate family rating is supported by Advance Auto Parts' sizable position in the expanding U.S. commercial auto parts segment. The agency cited industry fundamentals that favor the business, including rising total vehicle miles driven in the U.S., growth in the total number of registered vehicles, and an increase in vehicle age to roughly 13 years.

Rating sensitivities

Moody's set explicit thresholds for potential rating action. An upgrade could follow if lease-adjusted debt/EBITDA is sustained below 4.5x and if EBITA/interest is sustained above 3.5x. Conversely, a downgrade risk exists if lease-adjusted debt/EBITDA remains above 5.5x or if EBITA/interest stays below 2.5x.

Overall, the ratings action leaves Advance Auto Parts with affirmed Ba3 credit ratings and an improved liquidity assessment, while identifying clear quantitative triggers that would prompt a future move in either direction.

Risks

  • Restructuring outcomes could differ from Moody's expectation - while only minor restructuring charges are expected in 2026, larger or extended restructuring costs would affect cash flow and credit metrics (impacts: company credit, lenders).
  • Deterioration in leverage or coverage metrics could trigger downgrades - specifically, lease-adjusted debt/EBITDA above 5.5x or EBITA/interest below 2.5x would risk rating reductions (impacts: bondholders, credit markets).
  • Liquidity reliance on cash balances and the asset-based revolver - any reduction in available facility capacity or cash could weaken the SGL-1 assessment (impacts: short-term funding providers, commercial lenders).

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