Markets enter a potentially volatile window on Thursday, June 25, 2026, as a compact schedule of key economic releases arrives that collectively speak to growth, inflation, labor market health and manufacturing demand. Traders and portfolio managers will be parsing the data for signals that could influence policy expectations, interest-rate pricing and sector positioning.
The headline reports of the day are the quarterly change in GDP, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index - the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation - Initial Jobless Claims, and Durable Goods Orders. These items will be released early in the U.S. trading day, with several additional Fed speeches and Treasury auctions scattered through the session that market participants will monitor.
Major economic events and timing
- 7:30 PM ET (Wednesday): U.S. President Trump Speaks - Presidential remarks that may influence market sentiment and policy expectations.
- 7:30 AM ET: GDP - Forecast: 1.6%, Previous: 2.0% - Measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy, serving as the primary indicator of economic health.
- 7:30 AM ET: Core PCE Price Index - Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.2% - Tracks monthly price changes in consumer goods and services excluding food and energy, representing the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.
- 7:30 AM ET: Durable Goods Orders - Forecast: -5.0%, Previous: 8.0% - Measures the change in total value of new orders for long-lasting manufactured goods, including transportation items.
- 7:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast: 225K, Previous: 226K - Tracks the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time, providing the earliest weekly snapshot of labor market conditions.
Those headline releases are accompanied by a number of secondary data points that will provide additional texture on consumption, prices and corporate activity:
Other important economic events to watch at 7:30 AM ET
- Continuing Jobless Claims - Forecast: 1,800K, Previous: 1,810K - Measures the number of unemployed individuals currently receiving unemployment benefits.
- Core Durable Goods Orders - Forecast: 0.5%, Previous: 1.1% - Tracks new orders for long-lasting manufactured goods excluding volatile transportation items, offering a clearer view of underlying manufacturing trends.
- GDP Price Index - Forecast: 3.5%, Previous: 3.7% - Measures the annualized change in prices of all goods and services included in GDP, serving as the broadest inflationary indicator.
- Core PCE Prices - Forecast: 4.40%, Previous: 2.70% - Annual measure of price changes in consumer goods and services excluding food and energy.
- Core PCE Price Index - Forecast: 3.4%, Previous: 3.3% - Annual core inflation measure excluding food and energy prices.
- Personal Spending - Forecast: 0.6%, Previous: 0.5% - Tracks the inflation-adjusted change in consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.
- PCE Price Index - Forecast: 0.5%, Previous: 0.4% - Monthly measure of average price increases for all domestic personal consumption.
- PCE Price Index - Forecast: 4.0%, Previous: 3.8% - Annual measure of average price increases for all domestic personal consumption.
At 7:45 AM ET, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman is scheduled to speak. Market participants typically look to such Fed commentary for nuance on monetary policy direction and how incoming data might be interpreted by policymakers.
Midday and afternoon calendar items
- 9:00 AM ET: Atlanta Fed GDPNow - Forecast: 3.0%, Previous: 3.0% - A real-time estimate of current-quarter GDP growth based on available data.
- 12:00 PM ET: 7-Year Note Auction - Previous: 4.290% - Treasury auction that provides insight into investor demand for government debt and prevailing interest rate expectations.
- 2:40 PM ET: FOMC Member Williams Speaks - New York Fed President John Williams may offer commentary on economic conditions and monetary policy outlook.
- 3:30 PM ET: Fed’s Balance Sheet - Previous: 6,736B - Weekly report detailing the Federal Reserve’s assets and liabilities.
- 3:30 PM ET: Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks - Previous: 2.936T - Tracks the amount of money depository institutions maintain in their Federal Reserve accounts.
- 5:30 PM ET: Fed Goolsbee Speaks - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee’s remarks on economic conditions and policy perspectives.
Additional scheduled releases and events throughout the morning add granularity to the overall economic picture and include measures of business income, producer orders, consumer behavior and regional survey results.
Other releases and indicators to note
- Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. - Previous: 223.25K - The four-week moving average smooths weekly volatility in initial claims.
- Corporate Profits - Forecast: -0.4%, Previous: 4.7% - Measures net current-production income of corporations, reflecting business profitability trends.
- Chicago Fed National Activity - Previous: 0.14 - Composite index tracking economic activity across multiple indicators.
- Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air - Forecast: 0.6%, Previous: -1.0% - Tracks new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, a key indicator of business investment.
- GDP Sales - Forecast: 1.5%, Previous: 0.3% - Measures the change in total sales component of GDP.
- PCE Prices - Forecast: 4.5%, Previous: 2.9% - Annual measure of consumer price changes across all goods and services.
- Real Consumer Spending - Forecast: 1.4%, Previous: 1.9% - Inflation-adjusted measure of household spending on goods and services.
- Personal Income - Forecast: 0.4%, Previous: 0.0% - Tracks the change in total income received by consumers from all sources.
- Real Personal Consumption - Previous: 0.1% - Inflation-adjusted measure of personal consumption expenditures.
- Durables Excluding Defense - Previous: 8.1% - New orders for durable goods excluding defense-related items.
- 9:00 AM ET: Dallas Fed PCE - Previous: 2.50% - Trimmed-mean PCE inflation measure that excludes extreme price movements to gauge core inflation trends.
- 9:30 AM ET: Natural Gas Storage - Forecast: 67B, Previous: 73B - Weekly change in natural gas held in underground storage, indicating supply and demand dynamics.
- 10:00 AM ET: KC Fed Manufacturing Index - Previous: 9 - Survey-based indicator of manufacturing activity in the Kansas City Fed district.
- 10:00 AM ET: KC Fed Composite Index - Previous: 8 - Composite measure of manufacturing conditions in the Tenth Federal Reserve District.
- 10:30 AM ET: 4-Week Bill Auction - Previous: 3.580% - Treasury bill auction providing short-term government borrowing rates.
- 10:30 AM ET: 8-Week Bill Auction - Previous: 3.640% - Treasury bill auction for slightly longer-term government securities.
How market participants may parse the flow
The confluence of growth and inflation data alongside labor market and manufacturing orders concentrates the information that markets use to update expectations for interest rates, spreads and corporate demand. GDP and the GDP Price Index will contribute to the top-line assessment of momentum and broad inflation, while Core PCE readings - both monthly and annual measures listed in the calendar - are watched closely for any change in inflation persistence that could affect the Fed's policy stance.
Durable Goods Orders, particularly the headline that includes transportation items, offer direct insight into demand for long-lived manufactured goods and can be a near-term signal for sectors exposed to capital spending and freight volumes. Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims provide the earliest regular snapshot of labor-market dynamics that can influence consumer spending trajectories and company guidance.
Separately, Treasury auctions and Fed speakers will add fixed-income and policy context through the day, and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow update offers a real-time lens on quarter-to-date growth estimates.
Bottom line
Thursday's compact slate of releases compresses multiple high-salience measurements into a short time window, creating the potential for rapid market re-pricing if results deviate from expectations. Traders and asset allocators should consider the cross-asset implications of surprises in growth, inflation, labor and manufacturing orders, and be attentive to Fed commentary and Treasury auction results that can reinforce or counter headline data moves.