JPMorgan on Friday moved Tesla's rating higher, shifting to Neutral from Underweight and vastly increasing its price target for December 2027 to $475 from a previous $145. The firm framed the decision around Tesla’s initiatives in autonomous vehicles, humanoid robotics and energy storage, which it views as being undervalued by the market.
Central to JPMorgan’s thesis is Tesla’s level of vertical integration across hardware and software. The bank’s analysts described that integration as "unmatched at an industrial level scale." They see this combination of manufacturing control and in-house software development as a strategic advantage that supports multiple future revenue streams.
Rajat Gupta led the analyst team that issued the upgrade. In their note, they drew a comparison between Tesla’s approach and Amazon’s trajectory with AWS and Kiva robotics, arguing that Tesla’s factories could serve as real-world development and validation platforms for its Optimus humanoid robots. Using existing production facilities as testbeds could both lower manufacturing costs for Optimus and help validate the product for commercial sale, according to the analysts.
JPMorgan also pointed to momentum in Tesla’s robotaxi business. The bank noted the robotaxi service began operations in Austin in June 2025 and has since been expanded to Dallas, Houston and the Bay Area. The analysts highlighted Tesla’s large installed base and accumulated driving data - roughly 10 billion Full Self-Driving miles recorded and about 9 million Tesla vehicles on the road globally - as creating powerful network effects that should improve autonomous driving capabilities over time.
On the company’s financial outlook, JPMorgan forecasted revenue growth from $95 billion in 2025 to $203 billion by 2030. The bank expects services - including robotaxi revenue, Optimus sales and FSD licensing - to account for roughly half of that revenue increase. Earnings per share are projected to reach $7.50 by 2030, with the analysts identifying a meaningful inflection beginning in 2028. They further stated that free cash flow is not expected to turn positive until 2029.
Regarding valuation, the analysts acknowledged that current multiples on near-term earnings are "undeniably lofty on near-term earnings." Nonetheless, they argued Tesla "deserves the benefit of the doubt to be valued on long-term earnings potential given the majority of these new total addressable markets (TAMs) are unlikely to inflect until 2029+."
The bank also warned of near-term pressures. JPMorgan flagged that index rotation toward faster-growing stories could weigh on Tesla’s shares in the short run and potentially create "a better entry-point to re-engage or add" for investors. In the immediate term, they said the stock’s direction is likely to hinge on progress with the robotaxi rollout and Optimus development, together with clearer signals on the company’s earnings trajectory.
Key figures cited by JPMorgan in the note:
- December 2027 price target: $475 (previously $145)
- 2025 revenue estimate: $95 billion
- 2030 revenue estimate: $203 billion
- Projected EPS by 2030: $7.50
- Estimated cumulative FSD miles: ~10 billion
- Approximate global Tesla vehicle fleet: ~9 million